GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — It has been an abnormally slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season.

A total of five storms have been named, none of which have made landfall.

Only five storms have been named thus far.

In late May, the National Hurricane Center issued its 2022 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Model data indicated the season had a 65% chance of being above normal, producing between 14 and 21 storms, six and 10 hurricanes, and between three and six major hurricanes. This on the heels of 2021, which was the third most active year on record.

Matthew Rosencrans, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane season outlook lead, said forecasters look at a variety of data to determine an outlook.

“Basically the weather models that you see for day one, two, three, we run them out in different configurations for many months in the future,” he said.

They also take into account sea surface temperatures, wind shear, El Niño and La Niña years, to name just a few parameters.

Utilizing long-range models comes with challenges in accuracy. After a quiet pattern in June and July, NHC updated the outlook.

It dropped the chances of an above normal season from 65% to 60%. Fourteen to 20 storms are now expected to be named with six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

“We noticed some sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that were not quite as warm (as) they were predicted at the beginning of the season. Not only were the observations a little bit lower, some of the model forecasts were now cooler than the model forecasts from May,” Rosencrans said. “It’s very challenging and computationally expensive. Some of our models take 20 or more days to run.”

Seventy-five percent of all tropical storm and hurricane activity happens after Aug. 20, with the statistical peak of hurricane season falling on Sept. 10. On average, September sees around two storms develop per week. The National Hurricane Center expects that it will likely still be a normal or slightly above-normal season.

“Don’t let your guard down. Do everything you can to prepare now. Basically just think of this as extra time to prepare,” Rosencrans said.

In recent weeks, three storms have developed and several other areas are being watched for development.

Hurricane Earl is not expected to make landfall. An area further to the west is being closely watched for development.

“Our forecasts are supposed to be within the ranges 70% of the time. There are about 30% of our forecasts that aren’t expected to verify because we don’t have every little part of the planet measured every single day,” Rosencrans said.

Data is not advanced enough to project how many storms could make landfall. Rosencrans said the goal is to make developments in that research.