The map above shows the Severe Thunderstorm Watches so far this year. Much of West Michigan has not been under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch so far in 2022. Same story for Milwaukee, Chicago and Atlanta. There’s a low chance of severe weather this afternoon and evening in southeast Lower Michigan
The Grand Rapids NWS says: “THE VERY LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK, ISSUED AT 9 AM SHOWS ONLY A SMALL PART OF JACKSON COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE RAIN AREA MOVING IN AS I WRITE THIS, I AM THINKING THE RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM IN OUR CWA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A VERY SMALL NUMBER, LESS THAN 1%. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW NEAR SATURATION TO NEA 250 MB THIS EVENING OVER OUR I-69 FORECAST AREA. THIS IS FAR AN AWAY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN A SEVERE STORM THREAT.”
The map above is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this Monday afternoon (6 6 22). The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal or Low Risk east of a line from Coldwater to Detroit. This is for very isolated strong winds.
The rain should exit by daybreak Tuesday, leaving us with a pleasant and dry day. The next batch of rain moves in Wed. PM/evening.