Tropical Storm “Karl” formed Tuesday in the SW Gulf of Mexico – in the Bay of Campeche. It’s been drifting very slowly to the south.

cone graphic
Forecast Path of Tropical Storm “Karl”

The storm is expected to continue to drift very slowly to the south, then south-southwest and will come onshore, producing gusty winds (perhaps some gusts to 40-50 mph). That level of wind may down some tree branches, maybe an isolated whole tree. There could be wildly scattered power outages, but winds of this level should do only minimal damage.

The storm does have some heavy rain and the slow movement means the rain will linger for a longer period, so the greater threat will be flooding and maybe an isolated mudslide. This will affect parts of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]
The Strongest Winds from “Karl” are expected to remain over the open water. At the shore, the strongest winds are today and tomorrow (Thu. and Fri.)

Here’s the forecast discussion, the public advisory and a satellite loop of the storm.

Other than Karl, the Earth is unusually quiet. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Sonca is weakening into the depression as it moves into Vietnam. It will produce some local flooding. Wind damage shouldn’t be an issue. Two other tropical depressions are not strengthening and remain far from land.

Severe Storm Reports from Tue. Oct. 11

On Tuesday, there was a cluster of severe thunderstorm wind reports in SE Nebraska. Measured gusts of 58-70 mph were recorded by 6 weather stations. One weather station east of Plymouth, Nebraska had a gust to 87 mph. There was also one report of golfball-sized hail in northern Minnesota.