The threat of severe weather in West Michigan near zero for this Saturday PM/night. There will be scattered showers and an isolated t-storm with brief heavy rain.
Friday at around 350 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS MOVING THROUGH GAYLORD, CAUSING 2 FATALITIES, 44 INJURIES AND MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN DAMAGE. The swath of power outages above was t-storm and tornado-related.
Video of the tornado in Gaylord. Major structural damage in Gaylord – injuries. According to EMS/Fire scanner traffic in Otsego County, reports of 44 treated at area hospitals and building collapses at Dunham Sports and the Gordon Foods Service (north of Culver’s) on the west side of Gaylord. https://twitter.com/adtorreswx/status/1527743423477862400 Little Ceasar’s “totally destroyed“. Another pic. of the tornado with debris.
The storm crossed Leelanau County and then Traverse Bay (north of Old Mission Peninsula). Then it tracked from Lake Bellaire east to Gaylord, where it produced the tornado.
From the Otsego County scanner – “Gaylord area – is very noisy after a damaging tornado moved through. Gas leaks being reported at damaged houses. Hobby Lobby and other businesses sustained heavy damage, injuries being reported.” Baseball-sized hail at Posen, 2″ diameter hail at Hawks, golfball-sized hail at Clear Lake St. Park. “The entire north side of 32 west of downtown looks like a war zone.” More damage video. Check out the zoomed in satellite loop of the tornadic supercell over N. Michigan. Lots of damage pics. at the Gaylord NWS facebook page. More pics. from Gaylord. A gust to 76 mph was recorded at Frankfort.
The Storm Prediction Center sent out this message: “The storm complex that crossed Lake MI indeed evolved into a supercell, which became tornadic as it encountered the warmer surface-based air mass. This storm produced a tornado near Gaylord, MI.
Tornado was still on the ground at 3:55 pm east of Gaylord. Lots of damage in the Gaylord area – 2″ diameter hail at Elmira.
Preliminary map of the Gaylord tornado – it crossed M-32 and I-75. A National Weather Service storm damage assessment is continuing this Saturday.
|Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Low Very Low||Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Low||Severe Hail 2″+ Hail Moderate Moderate|
This was the watch that was in effect this afternoon for N. Lower MI.
No severe storms in our area, but we did have some fairly strong non-thunderstorm gusts: 48 mph at Holland, 45 mph at Jackson, 43 mph at Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, 41 mph at Muskegon.
Quite a temperature contrast up north…at 3 pm Friday it was 88° at Rogers City and 49° at Harbor Springs.
The map above is from the Storm Prediction Center and showed the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point Friday PM/night. There was a 2% to 5% chance across much of Lower Michigan.
This map (above) is the forecast probability of a wind damage report Friday PM/night. Most all of West Michigan is in the 15% area. So…a 15% wind damage risk and 2% to 5% tornado risk…you’re 3 to 7 1/2 times more likely to get wind damage than a tornado. The most likely scenario is that damage will be more isolated and the highest probability is that your street won’t get any damage at all.
This was the probability of a severe hail within 25 miles of a given point Friday PM/night. This is similar to the wind damage forecast…15% for all most all of Lower Michigan. The hatched area was a 10% chance of 2″ diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a given point….an we had hail up to 3″ in diameter with that storm – unusually large hail for Michigan.
The above map is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for today 5 21 22. A good portion of the Marginal Risk Area has been upgraded to Slight Risk. That runs from Canada to Texas. There is a Marginal Risk of a severe storm in Michigan south of a line from South Bend to Detroit. The main threat will be isolated wind damage. The Storm Prediction Center says: “…isolated development appears possible. Deep-layer flow/shear will be sufficient for a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail during the afternoon and evening.”
This is total rainfall over the next 7 days. After the showers and storms this PM/Saturday – it’ll be mostly dry in Lower MI from Sunday – Tuesday with another good slug of showers and storms during the middle of next week. The SW U.S. stays dry.
Last Saturday, thunderstorms produced 1/2″ hail at Mt. Pleasant and a gust of wind to 43 mph at Lansing. Delwin in Isabella Co. had another 2.64″ of rain. This was the same place that got 4.84″ of rain on Thursday. This gives them 8.48″ in about 76 hours. Tough for farmers to get to their fields with the standing water from these recent rains.
Here’s Storm Reports for Sunday/Sunday night (5 15 22). There were two small and inconsequential tornadoes, one in Illinois and the other in NE Florida. Wind and hail were the problems. There were 177 reports of wind damage (as I type this) and 146 severe hail reports with 18 of those reports of hail bigger than golf balls. Okemah, Oklahoma had hail the size of softballs (4 1/2″ in diameter)!
Monday was a big severe weather day in the East. We had a significant number of wind damage reports and one confirmed tornado in New Hampshire. New Hampshire averages one tornado per year. There were four other small and inconsequential tornadoes near the Colorado-Nebraska border.
This is the Severe Weather Warning Map for today (Thu. 5/19) Note the Enhanced Outlook over SE MN, W WI and IA. The Marginal Risk (in dark green) comes east to Lake Michigan.