Say goodbye to the warm air and hello to a cool pattern that may bring our first snowflakes of the season.
With average high temperatures now in the mid 50s, we had high temperatures of 76-68-68-68 from Tuesday-Friday. Saturday afternoon we sat at around 50° and we’ll stay in the 40s from today through Monday. Graphic from West Michigan Weather Stats.
This has been an interesting month. From Oct. 1-4 we had high temperatures in the 80s. The first five days of the month were unseasonably warm, with temperatures 14° warmer than average. Then from Oct. 6-23, we had 2 1/2 weeks of cool temperatures that were 3.4° cooler than average. Then from the 24th-27th we were 14.2° warmer than average and now we’re back to cooler than average for the last few days of the month.
The map above is the 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. They continue to put Michigan in the blue cooler, which means a higher than average chance of cooler than average temperatures. So, this cool pattern could last through the first week of November.
This could be a top five coldest Halloween ever for N. Indiana.
Speaking of cool, I’ve been watching the rapid cooling of air in Siberia (eastern Russia). Friday, the city of Oymyakon had a high/low temperature of +3°/-22°. They have 7″ of snow on the ground. Last Thursday, the city of Verkhoyansk had a high temperature of -5° and a low temperature of -24°. They have 5″ of snow on the ground. There is about a 70% correlation between cold and snowy weather in Siberia in late October and cold winters in the eastern U.S. So, while the current El Nino might argue for a milder than average winter, there are other considerations that point in the other direction.
This is the precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for Nov. 4-10. They give the northern and eastern U.S. an above average chance of above average precipitation.
We could use some dry weather. Since Oct. 5, Grand Rapids has had 5.27″ of rain. We’ve had measurable rain on 16 of the last 23 days…and it’s been a cloudy month. The first 3 days of October brought us 89% of possible sunshine. From Oct. 4 – 27 (24 days), we’ve had just 19% of possible sunshine. The average sunshine for October is 43%.
Here’s a webcam screen grab from Yellowstone N.P at around 2 pm Sat. 10/28. At Old Faithful, it’s sunny and a frosty 17 degrees.
ALSO: Helicopter view of the incredible damage in Acapulco. The official death toll from Hurricane Otis in Acapulco is 27, but unfortunately, that toll will go much higher. Entire neighborhoods have been destroyed. Before and after pics. More before and after. Floodwaters continue to inundate populated areas. Drone video of the damage. Satellite view of Otis hitting the coast.