The map above is the total rainfall forecast for the next week from the Weather Prediction Center. Some much needed rain is on the way. Scattered showers and maybe a thundershower will be possible tonight, with another chance of showers on Thursday as cooler air moves in.
Above is the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center. Just light green in Michigan – so a chance of a non-severe thunderstorm tonight. The risk of severe weather is higher in the orange (Enhanced Outlook), yellow (Slight Risk) and dark green (Marginal Risk) areas in Texas and Oklahoma. SPC says: “Large to very large hail and severe winds, some of which could be significant, will be the main threats.”
This has raised a question. Today is the National Emergency Alert Test – which appeared to come off without a hitch at 2:18 pm. EDT (1:18 pm In Texas and Oklahoma), it’s possible severe thunderstorms may be occurring when we have one of these tests. Would the Emergency Alert be confusing in those areas? I guess if you’re going to do a nationwide test, the weather will probably be threatening somewhere.
This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Thursday. There is only a General Risk of a thunderstorm (not severe) from Lower Michigan and Ohio to Texas and Louisiana. Here’s radar:
As the cooler air arrives, it not impossible that we could see a waterspout or two on Lake Michigan. At 4 am Wed., the mid-Lake Michigan buoy had an air temperature of 72 and a water temperature of 69. That’s pretty warm for October.
We had record high temperatures on Tuesday in both Grand Rapids and Muskegon. We came very close to daily records in Holland, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek.
Wednesday was the last really warm day. Cooler air pushes into Lower Michigan. Daytime temperatures will fall back to near 70 on Thursday, the low 60s on Friday and the 50s over the weekend. After today, I think after today, we’re done with the 80-degree temperatures until next year.