Risk of Severe Storms Tue. PM


This is the Severe Weather Forecast Map from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday PM/night. We are smack dab in the middle of the Slight Risk Area (in yellow). Grand Rapids even gets a mention at the bottom. SPC says: “

 ...Great Lakes...
   Ongoing storms are likely in the morning across the Upper Midwest as
   a southwesterly LLJ and warm advection regime promote moisture
   transport and ascent in portions of MN/WI and the western U.P. of
   MI.  A severe risk may accompany this activity mainly in the form of
   isolated damaging gusts.  The northeastern extent of an elevated
   mixed layer with associated capping will probably overspread parts
   of the middle MS Valley during the day.  Isolated diurnal storms are
   possible along the front with a hail/wind risk.  Farther northeast,
   the magnitude of destabilization is highly dependent on the
   convective evolution of a possible MCS moving through the western
   Great Lakes during the morning.  Wind fields will likely strengthen
   across the destabilizing warm sector during the day which will favor
   organized storm structures including the possibility for supercells
   and bowing segments.  Refinements in severe probabilities will
   likely be needed due to mesoscale dependencies influencing the
   severe thunderstorm outlook.

This event looks similar in some respects to last Thursday…with a line of scattered to solid storms along an advancing cold front. The main threat will be isolated wind damage, thought hail or even a tornado is possible at this point.

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