In the last 12 days, we’ve had only 0.03″ of rain in Grand Rapids. Despite the dry spell, pretty much everything is green. We had a soaking 1-2.5″ of rain on August 28th/29th. Showers and embedded t-showers are likely this Sunday through Monday night.

Radar

The top map above is the excessive rainfall outlook for Sunday to Monday AM. There is a Slight Chance of excessive rain over E. Wisconsin, NE Illinois and West Michigan. Showers and maybe a thunderstorm for Sunday PM/Monday and a shower or two could linger into Tuesday. Then Wednesday through Saturday should be dry.

Saturday afternoon, there was rain in Wisconsin and an area of showers and thundershowers developed east of a line from Coldwater to Lansing. Milford had 1.57″ of rain in just one hour. A thundershower delayed the Michigan football game by about an hour. The Eastern Michigan/Louisiana game also had a lightning delay.

Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center for Sunday PM/night

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center for this Sun. PM/night. There is a chance of a non-severe t-shower south of a line from Manistee to Oscoda. Much of the eastern U.S. will have isolated to scattered thundershowers and the area from southern California to W. Texas.

The summer monsoon has been stronger than average this year. As of Sunday morning (9/11), the Colorado River at the Grand Canyon is finally up to 100% of average flow for the date – with a flow of 11,000 cubic feet per second.

Graph of the Water Storage – Shasta Lake, California

The graph above is the water storage level of Shasta Lake, the biggest reservoir in California. The light blue is the average over the course of the year. The green line is the very wet, strong El Nino year of 1982-83. It was a very warm and rather snowless winter in West Michigan – just 36″ of snow for the season, 65 degrees in G.R. on Christmas Day. The red line is 1976-77 – which was the coldest winter of the century in Gr. Rapids. The next winter was also a very cold and snowy winter in Lower Michigan. We had the blizzard of ’78, followed by the coldest February and 5th coldest March. This year the level of Shasta Lake is well below average, but well above the dry year of 1977-78 in CA. The population of California has doubled since the mid 1970s and Phoenix is the 5th largest city in the U.S. More people need more water, but there’s only the same amount of rainfall.

There were only 3 severe weather reports Saturday – all related to strong winds in Central Florida. A power line was knocked down at Lake Weir and there were gusts of 58 mph and 62 mph recorded on the grounds of the Cape Canaveral Space Facility.

Rainfall totals in the Southwest: 1.87″ Julian, 0.69″ Bishop, 0.28″ Anaheim, 0.21″ Laguna Beach, 0.10″ Phoenix, 0.03″ Death Valley, 0.02″ San Diego, 0.01″ Yuma.