Enjoy the two mild days we have today and Wednesday. A strong west wind will blow the chilly air back into Michigan Thursday and the cold air is going to stick around.
This is the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for April 19-25. Cooler than average weather is expected across the northern U.S. from coast-to-coast – from Seattle to Eastport ME and across the entire eastern half of the U.S. – same story for Alaska. Warmer than average temperatures are expected in the Southwest and Southern Rockies.
This is the corresponding 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for April 19-25. They expect near average precipitation in the Great Lakes, with above average precipitation in the Pacific NW, much of the Northeast and the Alaska Peninsula.
We got this message from Meteorologist Bill Marino at the Grand Rapids National Weather Service:
“WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST A WEEK OF COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOLLOWING THIS WARM UP THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF (European) ENSEMBLES. FOR AT LEAST THE PAST WEEK THE ECMWF HAS FEATURED THE COLD PERIOD FROM THURSDAY TO NEXT SATURDAY (23RD) ON EVERY MODEL RUN SINCE THE 5TH OF APRIL. THE GFS IS NO DIFFERENT IN THAT REGARD. FOR THAT MATTER, THE CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO FEATURE THIS WEEK OR SO OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMING UP.
CURRENTLY AT GRAND RAPIDS, OUR MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ANOMALY IS (AS OF MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT) WAS 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE SHORT NATURE OF OUR CURRENT WARM UP AND THE LENGTH OF THE COLD ANOMALY EXPECTED, IT SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE TO EXPECT APRIL TO CONTINUE TO AVERAGE COLDER THAN NORMAL. CURIOUSLY, IF YOU LOOK BACK AT ALL OF THE YEARS WE HAD A MODERATE OR STRONGER LA NINA DURING THE WINTER (WE DID THIS YEAR) SINCE 1950, WE HAVE HAD 15 OF THEM. ONLY 20% OF THOSE APRILS WERE WARMER THAN NORMAL. CURIOUSLY MAY’S ODDS OF BEING WARMER THAN NORMAL ARE NOT HIGH, ONLY 27% OF THOSE MAY’S WERE WARMER THAN NORMAL.
ANOTHER ASPECT TO THAT IS THAT OUR MEAN (AT GRR) FIRST 70° DATE IS THE 4TH OF APRIL. IF WE DO NOT GET TO 70° ON WEDNESDAY, WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH OR LONGER.
WE ARE GETTING THIS AS A RESULT OF A SERIES OF CLOSED UPPER LOWS. THIS ALSO HAS RESULTED IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF PART OF NEXT WEEK. ACTUALLY 40 OUT 50 OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES GIVE US MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE MON. TO WED. TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS STRONG ON THIS IDEA, BUT WE STILL HAVE NEARLY 15 OF THE 30 MEMBERS FORECASTING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN.”
Bill adds – Second year La Ninas tend to favor above average numbers of both tornadoes and severe weather in the U.S. AND an above average number of Atlantic tropical storms (below average in the Western Pacific).
We also have a recurving typhoon (hurricane) right now in the Western Pacific. Often a cool trough forms in the Eastern U.S. a few days after we get a recurving typhoon, so this reinforces our thoughts on the cooler than average long-range pattern.
As I have mentioned many times…cool weather in early-mid spring has some benefits…it keeps much of the severe storms south of Michigan. It keeps the blossoms from coming out too soon and being susceptible to a frost. It also keeps the mosquitoes away (they are pretty inactive at temps below about 50 degrees.
So, keep that winter coat nearby in the closet. Thanks for reading my blog.