Long-Range Forecast

Weather

This is the 8-14 day temperature outlook for Aug. 5 – 11 from the Climate Prediction Center. They are forecasting a little (emphasize little) cooler than average temperatures from the Midwest east across the Great Lakes and down through the Ohio Valley. Average high temperatures are still in the low 80s, so we’re talking average highs in the upper 70s…it’s still summer.

Rainfall Outlook for August 5-11 from the Climate Prediction Center

This is the Rainfall Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for August 5-11. West Michigan is expected to have near average rainfall, but we’re in the middle of a dry area west of Lake Michigan and an above average area from Detroit to the east and south.

Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly for July 25

This map shows the Sea-Surface Water Temperature difference from average. Yellow, orange and red are warmer than aveage. Blue is colder than average. These values are derived from satellite. You can see a thin line of blue (cool) amid the yellow (weak El Nino) along the Equator in the Pacific Ocean. The water is cool around much of Australia and west of much of S. America. It’s warm over much of the Northern Oceans. Of particular note is the orange/red warm blob of water south of Alaska. Upper level ridges favor areas of warm water in the winter and a ridge in Alaska would favor a trough in the Central/Eastern U.S. That would be a cool pattern for us for much of the winter.

Ridge over Alaska – Trough over the Great Lakes

We could see a pattern similar to this (above) with the “blocking” making it easier for cold air in Canada to “ride the jet” down into the Great Lakes area. Still too early to go with this…but just wanted you to know that this is on the table and that I’m already starting to look ahead at weather for the fall and winter.

High temperatures for the next 5 days

In the meantime, look for high temperatures near average – in the low 80s through midweek, then into the mid 80s for Friday and Saturday. The best chance of rain this week is today…with dry conditions prevailing from Tuesday into the weekend.

High temperatures from Sunday

The high temperature was 90° at Kalamazoo on Sunday, the 10th time this month (and this year) that the temperature has reached 90° in Kalamazoo. Battle Creek also made it to 90° – that’s their 9th 90-deg. temperature of the month and year. Grand Rapids has climbed to 90° seven times this month (five days of 90°, one 91° and one 92°.

South Haven sunset

The days are getting shorter. We are losing around 2 minutes of daylight each day now. As of today, we have lost 44 minutes of daylight since the Summer Solstice back on June 21.

The month of July so far has been 3.2° warmer than average with 72% of possible sunshine. So, this is going to be the first warmer-than-average and sunnier-than-average month of 2019.

River levels are coming down. but are mostly still above average flow. The Grand River at Ionia is flowing at 1,000 cubic feet per second – average is 704 cfs. The St. Joseph River at Niles is at 3,670 cfs – average is 2060 cfs. The Muskegon River at Croton is at 1,320 cfs – average is 2,060 cfs.

Look for a thin crescent moon before sunrise with the bright planet Jupiter gracing our southern sky overnight. Not-as-bright Saturn is to the left of Jupiter after dusk. Venus and Mars are lost in the glare of the sun right now. Here’s a list of times when you can see the Intl. Space Station fly over West Michigan.

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