Global hurricane activity has been pretty quiet over the last several weeks. Here’s the latest view of the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico sector:
So far, we have not had a hurricane in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico sector. We have had 3 tropical storms (Alex, Bonnie and Colin). Alex dropped 11″ of rain on Miami FL – but that was technically before it was a tropical storm. Bonnie was the storm that crossed Central America and became a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. It was debatable whether Colin should have been named. One drowning was blamed on high surf from Colin in North Carolina.
Here’s the 100-year average graph of the hurricane season in the Atlantic/Hurricane/Gulf of Mexico. It’s possible to have a tropical storm at any time of year, but the hurricane season technically begins on June 1. Activity starts to increase around August 1 and you can see a significant peak in tropical activity on September 10th. A large portion of tropical activity comes from mid-August to mid-October. We are fairly confident that this lull in hurricane activity will end and that tropical storm activity will be average to above average during this time period.
Here’s tropical activity in the eastern Pacific. As I type this, a tropical depression is forming well southwest of the Mexican Coast, which will drift harmlessly to the west- northwest and eventually dissipate.
There is one dissipating depression coming into the eastern Arabian Peninsula and another depression just east of Japan. The Western Pacific Sector has been very quite of late, and relatively quiet for the past 3 years (La Nina Pattern).
Here’s the global ACE Index. Meteorologists use the ACE INDEX as a measure of both the number and the strength of tropical storms. Note the column on the far right. We have an ACE Index of just 2.8 so far in the Atlantic Sector. That compares to an average ACE-to-date of 13.7. That’s only 20% of average ACE. The Northwest Pacific is at an ACE of 23.2, compared to an average ACE-to-date of 95.2. That’s just 24% of average ace-to-date and that’s pretty amazing. The Eastern Pacific Sector is the only Northern Hemisphere sector which has an above average-to-date ACE Index of 80.7, which is 139% of average ACE-to-date.
Globally we’re at an ACE of 114.5, which is just 65% of average ACE-to-date.