Tropical Storm Colin off the Carolina Coast was next to nothing and is an example of storms that are getting named now that never would have been named 20 years ago. We had had “Alex”. That was a tropical storm June 5-6 that dropped very heavy rain (11″ in MIami) in South Florida (when it technically was just a depression).

Hurricane Bonnie formed off the coast of Venezuela. “Bonnie” (yeah, “My Bonnie Lies Over the Ocean” – side note…Mitch Miller lived to be 99 years old). Bonnie survived the trip across Central America and redeveloped into a hurricane. It will move west well off the coast of Mexico and eventually dissipate.cone graphic

Active Storms  |  Marine Forecasts 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook  |  5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

The system off the coast of Texas is likely to produce heavy and possible flooding as it comes ashore. in SE Texas:

View 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

The third system farther east has only a small chance of reaching hurricane strength.

ACE INDEX as of June 29 (Wed.)

This has been a very quiet hurricane year so far globally. The column on the far right is the ACE Index, a measure of the strength and number of tropical storms.hurricanes. The first number is the current ACE Index and the number in ( ) is the average ACE Index to date.

All basins are below average with the exception of the NE Pacific. Globally, the index is at 132.5, compared to the average-to-date of 204.3. That’s just 65% of average. We anticipate that activity will ramp up later this summer and that the Atlantic sector will have above near to above average ACE. The northwest Pacific is likely to continue to have below average ACE due in part to the La Nina pattern we are currently in.

Sea-surface temperature anomaly (difference from average)

The map above is sea-surface water temperature anomaly (difference from average) on June 29. Blue areas show water that’s cooler than average – yellow and orange areas indicate where the water is warmer than average. Note that the water off the East Coast of the U.S. and in the Gulf of Mexico is a little warmer than average.

This is the current weather at the South Pole as I type this. It’s 92 below zero! Antarctica is colder than average at this time.