After an unusually quiet August, both in the Atlantic and globally, hurricane activity will start to pick up as we move the calendar to September. This is the first time since 1941 that we have not had a hurricane or tropical storm in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico from 7/3 to 8/31.

Here’s the latest ACE INDEX and hurricane data from Colorado State University. The Ace Index is a measure of the number and strength of tropical storms. So far, we have had no hurricanes and 3 tropical storms in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. We’ve had Tropical Storm Alex, Tropical Storm Bonnie and Tropical Storm Colin (which was so weak it’s debatable whether it should have ever been named).

The column on the right shows the current Ace Index and the average-Ace-to-date in ( ). For the Atlantic, the current Ace Index is a paltry 2.8. That compares to an average-Ace-to-date of 34.0. BIG DIFFERENCE! The Eastern Pacific (storms that form off the West Coast of Mexico and Central America) is the only N. Hemisphere sector that has an above average Ace-to-date at 80.9. The Northwest Pacific (the sector that gets the most hurricanes (called typhoons in this sector), has also been very quiet this summer. This sector has an Ace-to-date of 42.6, roughly a third of the average-Ace-to-date of 128.6. The Indian Ocean (where hurricanes are called cyclones) also has a below average-to-date Ace Index.

There’s no activity in the Southern Hemisphere, where it is winter.

Globally, We have an Ace-to-date of 134.9, which is barely over half the average Ace-to-date of 250.8.
The number of hurricanes peaks September 10 in the Atlantic Basin

The image above shows the start, peak and end of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. There is a sharp peak in activity around the 2nd week of September. We expect the number of hurricanes to increase significantly over the next several weeks.

Tropical Storm Names for the Atlantic Basin in 2022

The next name for a tropical storm will be Danielle, then we’ll have Earl and Fiona.

Path of soon-to-be Hurricane Danielle

Hurricane Danielle is forming in the central Atlantic. The models are pretty much in agreement that this storm will pass far enough north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to prevent anything more than some high surf. The storm will curve north and then northeast, perhaps coming close to Bermuda and then weaken as it moves into cooler water.

Atlantic sector map from the National Hurricane Center. The legend is at the bottom. An orange X is a 40%-60% chance of a becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. A yellow X is a less than 40% chance.

Here’s the Eastern Pacific Map – a hurricane will form and parallel the Mexican Coast later this week.

Here’s the NW Pacific and Indian Oceans. There is one compact but strong super-typhoon (Hinnamnor) in the W. Pacific. The Indian Ocean is quiet.
Forecast Path of Typhoon Hinnamnor

Typhoon Himmanor is expected to continue to the west, then make a sharp curve to the north and head toward Japan.