This (Mon.) morning, we have our first frost/freeze of the season with most low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s and cold spots in the mid 20s. It was the coldest morning since last April 27. Some of you had to dig around to find that ice scraper to get the frost off the windshield. We should see a nice temperature rise into the mid-upper 50s this afternoon. The chance of a shower sneaking in isn’t zero, but most or all of the day will be dry. We’ll have a chance of a shower Tuesday, but the best chance of rain may come on Wednesday.

Here’s forecast high and low temperatures from the European model for Grand Rapids. A warm front passes thru, sending temperatures to the low-mid 70s on Tuesday. We’re still in the (relatively) warm air on Wednesday, though clouds and scattered showers may take high temperatures down a touch into the upper 60s. Thursday, we could be back up to 70. Much cooler air arrives early next week. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if a few folks might see the first snowflakes of the season around or just after Halloween. Most of the models have temperatures around 40 for trick-or-treat time on the 31st.

I remember some rainy Halloweens. Many years I worked the evening shift, so I wasn’t out with my kids. When I did go out with them…we had this “weather chat” problem. People would see me and start chit-chatting about the weather. I can talk forever about the weather! My kids would have to tug me away – their goal was to collect candy, not to listen to the same weather talk for 10 minutes at every house.

Here’s the 6-10 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. This may shows the probability forecast of above and below average temperatures. Note the large are of blue (and dark blue) from the West Coast across the Rockies and Midwest. Remember, this is for a 5-day average, so the temperatures could start above average in Lower Michigan on Day 6 (Oct. 28), then turn significantly colder by day 10 (Nov. 1).

Here’s the precipitation probabilities for Oct. 28-Nov. 1. Odds favor above average precipitation in Michigan and I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a period of light snow or a rain/snow mix at some point during this period, especially in the U.P.

Last year, we had our first frozen precipitation (just a trace) on Oct. 13 and from Nov. 13-20 we had a whopping 28″ of snowfall in Grand Rapids (airport). We had 10″ of snow on the ground on 19th and 20th. Above are some snowfall totals from last year for Nov. 17-19. However, it all melted as high temperatures from Nov. 21-30 ranged from the low 40s to mid 50s.

Here’s some fall colors – a pic. that my daughter Marie took Sunday PM. Sunday we had 56% of possible sunshine. It was the sunniest day since Oct. 3rd (nearly 3 weeks). I have it in my notes that the peak of fall color in Grand Rapids comes on average on October 23rd – which is today. There are areas that are still mostly green, but this week we should have some great color to see in West Michigan.

Grand Rapids had 4.25″ of rainfall from Oct. 5-21. We had measurable rain on 13 of those 17 days. Grand Rapids is still 0.3 degrees warmer than average for the month of October, despite the fact that only 6 days out of 22 have been warmer than average! You math teachers can use this month’s temperatures to demonstrate the difference between mean and median. Here’s the climate summary for the month, showing each day’s high/low temperature and rainfall: