The Last Showers and T-Showers Move East This AM

5:20 am update – There are still a few scattered showers and a couple of isolated t-showers. I’ve had 0.17″ at my house this AM. No severe weather has been reported. This was the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center:

SPC reduced the severe weather threat in Michigan from slight to marginal. For Missouri to Lower Michigan, SPC’s mid-evening discussion said: “Low-level convergence has remained weak ahead of the front, which has limited convective coverage. However, later this evening, low-level convergence will increase. This combined with strengthening low-level flow will result in scattered thunderstorm development along the instability corridor from central Missouri into southern Lower Michigan. The greatest potential for severe storms will exist across Missouri, where the best combination of instability and deep-layer shear is present. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible in this area. Further to the northeast, from Illinois into Lower Michigan, instability was considerably less. For this reason, any severe threat is expected to be marginal.”

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The Grand Rapids NWS says: “THE BOTTOM LINE IS I STILL EXPECT MOST AREA TO GET AT LEAST RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TILL 6 AM (ISH). AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT THE QUESTION.

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Risk of a Tornado within 25 miles of a given point.

Here’s the Tornado Risk Map from SPC, They now have a less than 2% risk, so the risk of a tornado is not zero, but it is extremely low.

Risk of a severe wind gust (58 mph or greater) or wind damage this evening/tonight.

Here’s the risk map for severe criteria wind. The brown area is a low 5% risk of a severe wind report within 25 miles of a given location. That’s down from 15% earlier today.

Percent chance of a severe hail report (1″ or greater in diameter) within 25 miles of a given point

SPC has the severe hail risk at just 5% for Lower Michigan.

Here’s mesoscale discussions from the Storm Prediction Center, current severe thunderstorm and tornado watches, current Michigan weather observations, a surface weather map.

We’ll be tracking any storms as they come thru tonight.

Here’s a map showing severe storm reports from Monday (5/30). There were 5 relatively small tornadoes. The big story was the wind damage across Minnesota. Wind gusts hit 90 mph at Appleton MN. A camper was flipped over on I-29 in eastern SD. As of 11:15 am Tue., there were still 32,567 customers without power in the state of Minnesota.

We still have the Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Grand Haven to the north until 6 am. DO NOT SWIM NEAR OR JUMP OFF THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE PIERS AND BREAKWATERS)!! There were several water rescues at Grand Haven Monday. A structural current develops on the south side of the pier at Grand Haven when there is a strong south or southwest wind. That current pulls you out toward deeper water, toward the lighthouse.