The map above is the latest 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for May 27 – June 2. Southern Lower Michigan is still forecast to have near to slightly above average high temperatures for the period. Keep in mind that this is for a 7-day period. I’ll guess it’ll be warmer than average to start (May 27) and then cool back to average as we get to Memorial Day and into the first couple days of June. The average high/low is 75/53 for Grand Rapids at the end of May.
The long range still shows a bubble of heat in the SE U.S. and cooler than average weather in the Northern Plains.
Here’s a look at forecast high temperatures and the record high temperatures and year. Note that all but one of the records occurred in 1977. Talk about extreme weather…the winter of 1976-77 was tied for coldest winter ever in Grand Rapids. We went 45 days without getting above freezing. Dec. 1976 was 8.3° colder than average…it was -11° on 12/2, -11° on 12/30 and -14° on New Years Eve. From Dec. 26-Feb 8 the temperature didn’t get warmer than 30. January was 10° colder than average. Jan. 19, 1977 is the only day in history when it snowed in Miami FL. Then we had 7 days that reached 80° in April and the long heat wave (7 days in the 90s) in May 1977. In April 1977, we had our last F4 rated tornado in Michigan.
The most likely area to see severe weather today is far southern TX, where there is a Slight Risk (in yellow on the map). The Marginal Risk Area covers Oklahoma, and most of Arkansas, Louisiana and much of Texas. Michigan is covered by the General (not severe) thunderstorm risk, though any storms here would be brief and widely scattered. Heavy rainfall totals are not expected in Michigan.
ALSO: The movie “Twister” is 25 years old. I went down to see where the movie was filmed in Wakita OK. Lightning hits a wind turbine in slow motion. Mt. Etna erupts again. Mammatus. Pretty sunset. Two inches of hail on the ground and a little dim sunshine. Cool pic. 6,6 magnitude quake. Time-lapse (note the rotation). Skyscraper in China starts shaking. Time-lapse of thunderstorm development from space. Four storm-related deaths have been confirmed in Louisiana mainly from driving into flood waters. Pretty rainbow. Interesting graphs. 10 waterspouts? Strong winds in the Panhandle. First flower of the spring in Siberia. Gigantic hail in Mexico and Texas. Waterspouts. Supercell time-lapse. Yosemite Falls.