There have been relatively few tornadoes in Michigan and the U.S. of late. Here in Michigan, we can’t seem to get a shower, much less severe weather. We’ve had only one relatively small tornado in Michigan this year. That single twister was relatively small and short-lived. It touched down near Dundee in Monroe County in the southeast corner of Lower Michigan. Michigan averages 16 tornadoes per year.

Michigan had just 6 tornadoes in 2022, with the Gaylord tornado of 5 20/22 being the most significant. Michigan has had 37 tornadoes in the last five years or an average of 7.4 per year.

Nationally, we’ve had only 66 tornadoes in the last 23 days. The average number of tornadoes for the U.S. for the last 23 days is 184. So that’s roughly 36% of average.

Severe Weather Outlook Map for Tuesday 6/6/23

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center for this Tuesday, June 6. Thunderstorms are not expected in Michigan. There are four areas where there is a level 1 or Marginal Risk of a severe storm. That’s far southern Florida, much of South Carolina, parts of New Mexico and far western Texas and northeast California, east to Utah. This is mainly for isolated strong winds and hail. There’s nothing more than a Marginal Risk for Wednesday and Thursday, too.

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

Finally, the 8-14 Day Rainfall Outlook has Michigan back to near normal. That’s for June 13-19. We’ll see. We have very little chance of getting some needed rain before next weekend.

Wettest ever start to the year for Jan. 1-Apr. 5…followed by the driest April 6 – June 6.
The overnight run of the GFS model has these percent possibilities of measurable rain for the next 8 days:

1%, 4%, 6%, 3%, 40%, 63%, 11%, 23% – So the best chance of rain on this model is next Sunday. The model gives us 1/2-3/4″ of rain. I know it’s the weekend…still some open houses and some weddings, but we do need the rain.