I have two concerns. First that we could see a heavy thunderstorm sometime between Thu. evening and Fri. PM. My second concern is that most of the storms pass just south of our area and we’re left with relatively low rainfall totals in West Michigan. As you know, we need rain.
The Severe Weather Outlook Map for Thursday PM/tonight has the highest probability of severe weather in the (yellow) Slight Risk Area across Iowa into SW Wisconsin and NW Illinois. The Marginal Risk comes to the edge of West Michigan.
This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Friday PM/night. The Slight Risk area runs from E. Illinois to W. Pennsylvania and barely comes up S. Branch Co. and the Michigan Counties that border Ohio. A question I have is can the storms maintain their intensity through the night, when they’d be moving thru Southern Michigan and could new storms form in S. Michigan during the PM.
The map above is the 39-year average probability of severe wind gusts. The most common track for storms the start in Iowa is to move south of I-94, with a maximum from E. Indiana into Ohio. (From a meteorological perspective…storms often track close to the 573 thickness line)
It’s likely that the storms that move through Iowa will turn ESE and go thru N. Illinois and N. Indiana, which is the climatologically favored track.
I’d advice checking back later for updates. We have another chance of showers/storms later Sunday night into Monday.
The rainbow at the top of the thread was over Reeds Lake Monday evening. That’s a relatively small cloud to make a nice rainbow like that. Lakeshore areas were dry Monday, while inland areas had scattered PM showers and a few thundershowers. The Ford Airport had a gust to 38 mph. There was pea-sized hail in Grant Township for a couple minutes. The shower dropped the temp at the Ford Airport.
Rainfall Monday totaled 0.31″ at Alma, 0.26″ at Big Rapids, 0.24″ at Manistee and Baldwin, 0.23″ at Battle Creek and Mt. Pleasant, 0.22″ at Houghton Lake and 0.16″ at the Ford Airport in G.R. Be grateful for what you get. Here’s the Public Advisory on the storm.
We’ll be sunny today (Wed.). Thursday should be partly sunny, a little breezy, dry and warmer – back in the mid 80s, with a chance of showers and storms Thursday night into Friday AM.