Tornado Probabilities

Bill's Blog
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This is the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point on August 14.  Note that there is a higher chance of a tornado in mid-August in Lower Michigan than in Oklahoma.  The most likely area to see a tornado is Central Florida – where they have interacting sea breezes and an occasional hurricane and also NE Colorado.  Tornado season in the South starts in late winter and peaks in the spring, with few tornadoes in late summer. 

Michigan averages 16 tornadoes per year.  This year we have had just one, a rather small EF0 on Aug. 1 at Taylor, near Detroit.  Wisconsin has had eight tornadoes, all of them small EF0 twisters. 

This map shows the number of tornado watches in the U.S. in 2018.  There have been 73 – about half the average total to date.  Large parts of Texas, Illinois  and Lower Michigan haven’t had a tornado watch this year.  Wyoming has had 31 tornadoes this year, Oklahoma only 12.  Norrth Dakota has also had 31 twisters, Texas just 24.  So far this year, there has been just 3 tornado fatalities in the U.S., comparted to 35 last year.

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