Thunderstorm/Heavy Rain Threat Tonight, Wednesday and Thursday

Bill's Blog

The map above is the Severe Weather Outlook Area for this Tuesday evening/night. West Michigan is in the Slight Risk Area. There is an Enhanced Outlook over in Wisconsin. A line of strong to severe storms is pushing across S. Wisconsin and NW Illinois. This line has produced gusts to 70 mph, hail and very heavy rainfall. The line tracks to the West Michigan shore by around 10 – 11 pm.

Percent Chance of a Tornado within 25 Miles of a Given Point Tue. PM/night

The map above is the percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point Tuesday PM/night. There is a 2% chance in Wisconsin in the Enhanced Risk Area – and less than a 2% chance in Michigan. So, tornadoes are not the most significant risk we have later tonight.

Twenty tornadoes were reported Monday and Monday night…18 in N. Illinois and 2 in S. Wisconsin. Here’s video of one of the tornadoes. Grandma sees a tornado. Video of tornado near Esmond IL. There’s probably some duplicate sightings of the same tornado in this number.

This is the percent chance of a severe wind report within 25 miles of a given point. We’re in the 15% chance in Lower Michigan. There is a +30% chance in the red area in Wisconsin, E. Iowa and N. Illinois and the hatched area is a 10% or greater chance of 75 mph winds (hurricane force) within 25 miles of a given point, At 75 mph, you can get significant tree and power line damage. SPC warns: “Areas of significant wind gusts may develop.”

Percent chance of severe hail within 25 miles of a given point

The map above is the percent chance of severe hail (1″ or greater in diameter). We have a 15% chance in the Enhanced Risk Area of S. Wisconsin, far NE Iowa and far N Illinois. The chance is 5% in Michigan (less than 5% south of a line from New Buffalo to the Thumb Area.

WW0419 Radar

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Low Very LowSevere Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate ModerateSevere Hail 2″+ Hail Moderate Low
Severe Thunderstorm Watch

This is the first severe thunderstorm watch of the day – until 9 pm EDT for E. Iowa, SW Wisconsin and a small portion of W. Illinois. The main threat is wind damage. The storms in E Iowa will continue east and eventually reach SW Michigan around midnight.

WW0420 Radar

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Low Very LowSevere Wind 65 kt+ Wind High ModerateSevere Hail 2″+ Hail Moderate Low

Here’s the 2nd watch – for Eastern and Southern Wisconsin and N. Illinois. This watch includes Chicago, Milwaukee and Green Bay. The main threat will be damaging winds. The line of storms will move east across Wisconsin and Lake Michigan and into West Michigan after 10 pm. Winds of 60-70 mph have been reported with this line.

Heavy rainfall overnight in Berrien Co. Michigan

Wow! Check out the rain they had last night in Berrien Co. Michigan! That’s in less than 2 1/2 hours. Berrien Springs had 2.2″ in an hour and 3.27″ in 3 hours…Benton Harbor (MAWN station) had 1.33″ in an hour and Cassopolis had 0.8″ in an hour.

Rainfall Monday 8/9

Here’s some rainfall totals from Illinois and from Fremont. Much of the rain in Fremont came in just one hour. Update: Fremont rainfall up to 3.3″ for the day. Any additional heavy rain on top of the rain we’ve already had could cause local flooding.

The maps below discuss the severe threat on Wednesday:

Severe Weather Outlook Map for Wednesday 8/11

The map above is the Severe Weather Outlook for Wed. 8/11. SPC has a Slight Risk from Eastern Iowa across Wisconsin and N. Illinois and into Lower Michigan. Here’s the breakdown:

Risk of a Tornado Wed. PM/night within 25 miles of a given point

This is the risk of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point. We have a +2% chance over most of Lower Michigan, along with SE Wisconsin, far E. Iowa, N. Illinois, a small part of NW Indiana, S. Ontario and W. New York.

Here’s the Wind Forecast Map for Wed. PM/night from the Storm Prediction Center. There’s a 15% chance of a severe weather report for all of W. Michigan.

Percent chance of a severe hail report within 25 miles of a given point Wed.

The above map shows the percent chance of a severe hail report within 25 miles of a given point. It’s almost identical to the percent wind map.

We’re also going to have to keep an eye out for storms along a cool front from Thursday into Thursday night. That’s just a chance of a storm, not a sure thing. Above is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Thursday PM/night. They have a Marginal Risk of a severe storm south of a line from Benton Harbor to Lake St. Clair. Dry weather is likely from Friday afternoon thru at least Monday. Farmers like to have. 3 days of dry weather when they cut hay and we have 3 dry days ahead for Sat./Sun. and Mon. (probably Tue., too).

Sunday night storms produced a 60 mph wind gust at the Muskegon Channel.

Here’s some rainfall totals from Sunday AM: 2.60″ Roosevelt Park, 1.74″ Montague, 1.63″ Ludington, 1.36″ Muskegon, 1.10″ Kent City, 1.00″ Fremont, 0.94″ Spring Lake, 0.87″ White Cloud, 0.75″ in Grant, 0.69″ Hart, lI had 0.22″ at my house in Alpine Township. Ionia had 0.06″, Grand Rapids (airport) just 0.05″ and the Regional Airport in Holland just 0.01″.

We’ll stay warm to hot and humid thru Thursday. Cooler and less humid air arrives Friday PM. Next weekend (14th-15th) looks dry and pleasant with afternoon temps. perhaps mid 70s to near 80. I think next week will end up a little warmer than average.

Here’s radar…and current Michigan weather conditions.

Storm Reports from Saturday 8/7

Here’s Storm Reports from Saturday. It was a fairly active day for August with 146 severe reports. There were two relatively inconsequential tornadoes, one in Florida and one in Wisconsin. There were 80 severe wind reports (60 mph gust near Milwaukee at Watertown WI) and 64 severe hail reports (including 8 reports of hail 2″ in diameter or larger – mainly in Kansas.

Severe Reports from Sunday

Here’s Severe Reports from Sunday – including two small and brief tornadoes in Iowa and the 60 mph wind gust at the Muskegon Channel.

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