Severe Weather Update

Bill's Blog

Sunday AM Update. – The Storm Prediction has expanded the Sunday PM Enhanced Outlook Area eastward. The last update stopped the Enhanced Outlook just shy of I-69. Now the Enhanced Outlook includes areas south of a line from Saugatuck to Flint…including Lansing, Jackson and Ann Arbor. See the most recent thread for more details on that. Here’s a Saturday discussion about the storms we’ll be getting this (Sunday) afternoon and tonight:

Organized severe storms should develop along and ahead of the cold front through the afternoon, and a mix of supercells and multicells/clusters appears possible. It remains unclear whether storms will reintensify Sunday afternoon ahead of the decayed morning convection and possible related MCV that may develop. If they do, then a focused area of severe risk may exist across northern IL into southern Lower MI with a small bowing cluster. Regardless, large hail should be the primary threat with initial semi-discrete activity Sunday afternoon. Severe/damaging winds will probably become more of a concern as storms grow upscale into multiple clusters along the front Sunday evening/night. Given the degree of instability forecast, at least an isolated threat for severe wind gusts may persist across parts of the central Plains to the OH Valley overnight. Finally, a risk for a few tornadoes may exist along/south of the warm front as a southwesterly low-level jet providing enhanced 0-1 km shear shifts eastward across the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley regions through Sunday night.”

Storm Reports for 6 18 21

Here’s severe storm reports for Friday. Huge hail up to 4″ in diameter and wind gusts to 77 mph from S. Iowa to E. Kentucky.

There is a second area where severe weather is likely – associated with tropical cyclone/depression “Claudette” from Georgia to North Carolina.

Here’s a summary of the storms early Friday AM:

In W. Michigan, gusts hit 60 mph at the Ludington buoy, 49 mph at the Ludington Airport, 48 mph in Kalamazoo, 43 mph at St. Joseph, 42 mph in East Grand Rapids and 40 mph at Muskegon. Tree limbs were blown down near Fulton. 7/10″ diameter hail fell just southwest of Allegan with 1/2″ hail near the Eastwood neighborhood in Kalamazoo County. In N. Indiana, part of I-65 was blocked just south of I-80 due to a sign that was blown over by strong winds. Consumers Energy reported up to 10,906 customers were without power around 7:30 am Friday.  

Very beneficial rain. Friday rainfall totals: Augusta and Galesburg 1.50″, Gobles 1.49, Delton and Castle Park 1.26″, Marshall 1.17″, Muskegon 1.09″, Kalamazoo 1.08″, Holland 1.03″, Battle Creek 1.08″, Comstock Park 0.86″, Walker 0.78″ Grand Rapids (arpt.) 0.66″ and Big Rapids 0.38″.

Below is Regional Radar:

Great Lakes radar

There are also chances for storms Sunday PM/night.

It was cool Thu. AM. Low temps: Leota (Clare Co.) 35, Roscommon 36. Cadillac, Lake City, Kalkaska and Baldwin 38, Lawrence and Mio 39, Manistee 40, Houghton Lake, Ludington and Watervliet 41, Hartford, Big Rapids and S. Haven 42, Hastings 44, Muskegon 45, Holland 47, Kalamazoo 49, Gr. Rapids and Battle Creek 50.

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