Severe Weather Risk for this Saturday PM

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Note from the Gaylord NWS: “

HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN CROSSING NORTHERN MI, WITH THE INITIAL   
ONSET AND LONGEST DURATION OCCURRING IN LEELANAU CO. RADAR   
ESTIMATES THAT 3-5" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE MAJORITY OF   
LEELANAU CO, AND INITIAL GAGE REPORTS SUGGEST THIS IS IN THE   
BALLPARK. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WAS EASILY EXCEEDED HERE, AND   
WARNINGS WERE ISSUED HERE AND EAST. STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN   
NOTED IN TRAVERSE CITY.  AS CLOUD COVER ERODES IN SOUTHERN  
SECTIONS FOR EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO. WE SHOULD KICK OFF REASONABLY   
VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION AGAIN TOWARD 1-2 PM ALONG THE PRIMARY  
COLD FRONT."
From the Detroit NWS:  "THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INBOUND   
SHORTWAVE WILL RAMP UP DURING THE 2 TO 5PM TIME FRAME, BEGINNING THE   
MAIN SEVERE THREAT WINDOW."

Here’s radar – scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today across Lower Michigan. Much of Lower Michigan is in the Slight Risk Outlook Area for potential severe weather.

The top graphic is the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center forthis Saturday PM 7/25. The threat level for much of Lower Michigan was increased from Marginal to Slight on Friday. The Saturday mid-morning update expanded the Slight Risk Area a little farther south, including more of N. Indiana and now far NW Ohio. Grand Rapids even gets a mention on the yellow bar at the bottom of the map. SPC says: “Convection will increase in coverage and move ESE across parts of Lower Michigan…a wind-damage threat with the more intense multi-cells.” If you’ve got something planned for Saturday – stay up with the latest forecast and look for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch and county warnings.

Percent chance of a severe wind report within 25 miles of a given point on Saturday/Saturday night

The map above goes with the first map. It’s the percent chance of a severe criteria wind weather report within 25 miles of a given point. The +15% area is centered right over Muskegon and Grand Rapids. With the Sat. mid-morning update, the area for possible wind damage was expanded south farther into NW Indiana and now NW Ohio.

Percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point Saturday PM

SPC says the percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point is 2%. The risk is low, but not impossible.

Risk of a severe hail report within 25 miles of a given point Saturday PM

The map above is the risk of a severe hail report (1″ in diameter or greater) for Saturday PM/night. You can see that all of Lower Michigan is in the 5% risk category.

There’s also a Beach Hazards Statement from Holland to the north for waves of 2-5 feet and the possibility of dangerous currents. Don’t swim near or jump off the piers and breakwalls today -especially the south side of the piers.

This may be correlation without causation…but some of you will remember the derecho of May 31, 1998. There was massive wind damage across much of Southern and Central Lower Michigan. That storm occurred on a Saturday night, but was preceded by a strong thunderstorm the previous Thursday night. Similar days of the week, but hopefully much less severe weather with the storms tonight and Sat. PM.

Rainfall amounts from Friday AM: 3.42″ Alaska (SE Kent Co.), 3.40″ Whitehall, 3.37″ Irving (Barry Co.), 3.08″ McDonald (Van Buren Co.), 3.00″ Shelby, 2.87″ Hart, 2.61″ Dutton (Kent Co.), 2.45″ Hastings, 2.39″ Grand Rapids (airport), 2.32″ Cloverville (Muskegon Co.), 2.17″ Spring Lake, 2.14″ Hartford, 2.07″ Grand Haven, 2.03″ Walker, 1.88″ Hartford, 1.86″ Montague, 1.73″ Comstock Park, 1.63″ East Gr. Rapids, 1.62″ Norton Shores, 1.41″Zeeland,. 1.28″ Hudsonville

More heavy thunderstorms (Marginal Severe Risk) again today in AZ and NM with the possibility of heavy rain and flash flooding.

Storm reports for Friday 7 24 21

Above is the map of severe storm reports for Friday. Once again there was only one small, insignificant landspout tornado (near Bernalillo NM. Wind gusts hit 75 mph at both Shooks MN and Elgin NV.

Storm Reports from Thursday 7/22/21

Here’s severe storm reports for Thursday 7/22. Once again, no tornadoes in the U.S. and only one severe hail report. The main story was wind damage. There were wind gusts to 91 mph at Ludlow SD and 90 mph at Red Elm SD. We track the storm reports there because that’s the system that will be affecting Lower Michigan’s weather on Saturday.

There were also several wind damage reports in the Las Vegas area a few by the Great Salt Lake and one in Arizona. Cataract Creek at Redlands Crossing AZ rose 2 feet in less than an hour due to heavy rainfall upstream.

Storm Reports for Wed. 7 21 21

Here’s the severe weather report map for Wednesday…quite a few reports of wind damage along the East Coast from VA to NJ. There were a few wind damage reports in the West…two in Arizona, one in California, one on the Nevada/Utah line and a handful up in Montana. No tornadoes in the U.S. again on Weds.

ALSO: Seattle has had 3 days this summer over 100 degrees…Dallas TX has had none. On July 22, 1779 – a devastating tornado occurred in N. France. It’s estimated that the tornado was an EF4 (link is in French).

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