A large portion of S. Lower Michigan is in the Slight Risk Area for potential severe weather this Sunday PM. SPC says: “Scattered thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible over Lower Michigan, northeast Indiana, and far northwest Ohio this afternoon into the early evening…The anticipated trajectory of vorticity maximum currently takes it over Lower MI during the afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this vorticity maximum, resulting in strong enough vertical shear to support more organized storm structures capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Highest concentration of severe storms is currently expected to be across southern portions of Lower MI and adjacent northeast IN and northwest OH.”
The Slight Risk is for areas southeast of a line from Benton Harbor to Grand Rapids to Saginaw. Surrounding the Slight Risk Area is a Marginal Risk Area that extends up to Manistee to Alpena.
This is the SPC percent risk of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point. SPC has a 2% risk SE of a line from Benton Harbor to Grand Rapids to Saginaw. So, the chance of a tornado is not zero, but it’s pretty small.
Here’s the bigger threat. This is the SPC % forecast of a severe wind damage report within 25 miles of a given point. For areas SE of a line from Benton Harbor to Grand Rapids to Saginaw – it’s 15%. Outside of that area, it’s 5%.
The percent chance of a severe hail report is similar to a wind report, but the area doesn’t extend quite as far to the east into OH, PA and NY. I personally think wind damage is more of a threat than hail in most areas.
Here’s G.R. radar:
and regional radar:
Here’s local lightning detector and national lightning detector, current weather observations, a surface weather map, the latest Gr. Rapids NWS forecast discussion, the Detroit NWS forecast discussion, the N. Indiana NWS forecast discussion, SPC watches and SPC meso discussions. I’ll update the blog when I have time (TV is the first priority). Enjoy your Sunday.