Risk of Severe Storms in SW Michigan

Bill's Blog

This is the Thurs. AM updated Severe Weather Outlook Map for Thursday PM/Night from the Storm Prediction Center.  The Slight Risk Area (in yellow) has been moved about 70 miles west and is now almost entirely in Illnois.  The Slight Risk Area is surrounded by a Marginal Risk (in dark green) that comes up into SW Michigan, south of a line from Grand Haven to Hastings to Battle Creek.  This would be mainly for a chance of isolated wind damage with a line of showers and t-showers coming through in the evening. 

The Storm Prediction Center says:  “Models indicate an uptick in convection near the front in eastern IL/IN…Though time of day is not particularly favorable for a higher-end severe threat, convection should strengthen beneath very strong wind fields aloft and result in a damaging-wind threat. This threat should also extend northeastward toward the warm front over southern Michigan. 15% wind-driven severe probabilities are in place across these areas.

Again this is for Thursday evening/early Thursday night. 

The overnight GFS model still gives G.R. about 1″ of snowfall late Wed. night into early Thurs with temps. in the low 30s early…rising into the 40s in the PM – the pavement is fairly warm, so much of the snow will melt on the roads…and what sticks to the grass melts quickly as temperatures rise. Looks on the chilly side for the coming weekend.

Also:  Fireball near Puerto Rico. 


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