Risk of a Thunderstorm

Bill's Blog

This is the Thunderstorm/Severe Thunderstorm Risk Map for Saturday, Dec. 1 from the Storm Prediction Center.  The risk of a not-severe thunderstorm (in light green on the map) comes up as far north as Muskegon to Lansing to Detroit.  The Marginal Risk Area (in dark green) includes E. Missouri, much of Illnois  and SW Indiana.  There is a higher Slight Risk Area (in yellow) runs from SE Louisiana and SE Mississippi, through much of Alabama, NW Florida and into  SW Georgia.  Also note the risk of a non-severe storm along the Oregon coastal area into far NW California. 

Back up a day…this is the Severe Weather Outlook area for today (Fri.).  There’s an Enhance Risk area (in orange) from NE Texas and SE Oklahoma into Arkansas and N. Louisiana.  That’s surrounded by a (yellow) Slight Risk Area.  There’s also a Slight Risk area for the New Orleans area into coastal Louisiana.  SPC says:  “Severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern Plains through the Ark-La-Tex region, accompanied by the risk for a few tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.”

NOW…I’m sitting here in Franklin TN Thurs. night.  Our plan is to drive SW down the” Natchez “Trace to the Mississippi River…then Saturday to drive back toward Pensacola, Florida.  SPC says:  “The type of severe should depend upon which mode is favored. Wind damage and QLCS-type tornadoes would be possible with line segments. If a cluster organizes with discrete modes, then supercells along with a tornado threat would also be possible”

I’ll have my phone out trackin’ the storms!  We’ll hit the big Santa parade at Pensacola Beach on Sunday (and the lighted boat parade and fireworks Sat. night if we get there in time and the weather is OK Sat. evening).  Then up to Oak Ridge TN to see my mother. 

Also:  Cats in snowRobbing Peter to pay PaulWaterspout off the coast of Greece Forked lightningSnowy month for much of the Cental and Eastern U.S.  Season snowfall:  Marquette 41.8″, S. Ste. Marie 28.8″, Kalamazoo 17.3″, Grand Rapids 14.4″, Muskegon 12.5″, Lansing 11.9″.  Ducks not apreciating the cold start to winter. 

Temperature forecast for Dec. 5-9 for the U.S. from the Climate Prediction Center shows coast-to-coast cold. 

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