Risk of a Severe Storm

Bill's Blog

The Storm Prediction Center has most all of Lower Michigan is in the Marginal Risk Area today and tonight. Here’s what SPC says: “

...Mid MO Valley to Great Lakes...
   Mainly elevated storms ongoing early this morning over parts of the
   Upper Midwest, associated with low-level warm air advection, should
   weaken by late morning as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually
   weakens. In the wake of this morning activity, renewed convective
   development should occur in the afternoon as a weak shortwave trough
   moves eastward across the Great Lakes. Considerable uncertainty
   remains in where greater thunderstorm coverage will occur this
   afternoon. Regardless, around 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear and
   strong instability will support mainly multicell clusters capable of
   producing both isolated large hail and damaging winds."
Severe Weather Outlook Map for Saturday June 29

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Area for Saturday. We are in the (light green) General (not severe) Thunderstorm Area.

The Severe Weather Outlook Map for Sunday 6 30 19

Above is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Sunday 6/30. Much of West Michigan is in the (dark green) Marginal Risk Area. SPC says:

Southern Great Lakes...
   An upper-level ridge is forecast to move southeastward from the
   upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. At
   the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into eastern
   South Dakota and southern Minnesota. Surface dewpoints near the
   front should be in the lower 70s F resulting in an east-to-west
   corridor of strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms may
   develop along the front from northeastern South Dakota into
   south-central Minnesota by late afternoon with convection moving
   eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. Other storms may
   develop southeastward along an axis of moderate instability into
   Wisconsin, northern Illinois and northern Indiana during the late
   afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the
   northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley suggesting that severe
   storms will be possible. Hail and isolated damaging wind gusts would
   be the primary threats. There is some uncertainty concerning the
   exact position of the front and how many storms will develop. Once
   these factors become more certain, a slight risk may be need to be
   added in later outlooks across parts of the region.
Tropical Storm Alvin

Tropical Storm Alvin will continue to move to the northwest over open water and rather quickly dissipate. The Pacific Ocean has been usually quiet over the past month.

Also: Very large hail in Slovakia. Severe winds in Romania. KaBoom! Slo-mo lightning. Sky “on fire“. Snow in Argentina. A diesel van pulling an petrol generator to charge up an electric car. Pretty sunset. Wind damage in Alabama. Nice thunderstorm anvil in the distance. Alabama hailstorm.

South Haven – Thunderstorm approaching with windy shelf cloud – and there’s a boat in the channel heading out into storm?

50.000 customers lost electricity due to the storms in Wisconsin. They really fizzled crossing Lake Michigan.

Here’s forecast high temps. today (Fri.) and departure from average

Copyright 2019 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Weather Tools