We have had more tornadoes in the U.S. this year than in an average year. As of May 1, 599 tornadoes have been reported in the U.S. The average number of tornadoes from Jan. 1 – May 1 is 502 (see graph below)

That’s 119% of average. Last year the number of tornadoes in the U.S. was slightly below average (98%). In 2020 we were below average with 89% of the average number of tornadoes. This is a 2nd year La Nina pattern and we’ve been anticipating a higher number of tornadoes this year in the U.S. and a high number of tropical storms in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point on May 3rd. If you’re a storm chaser, the most likely time and place to see a tornado anywhere in the world is Oklahoma USA in the month of May. It’s interesting to note that there is a higher probability of a tornado now south of I-94 in Southern Michigan than anywhere in the state of Florida

The map above is the % chance of severe thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of a given point on May 3. The darker orange is the area with the highest probability – approximately 3% (the bottom scale is different from the tornado map.

We have not had any tornadoes in Michigan this year. Last year we had 18 tornadoes. The average number of tornadoes in Michigan per year is 16.

Severe Weather Outlook for Tue. May 3

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today across SE Indiana, much of Ohio, N. Kentucky, SW Pennsylvania and a small portion of West Virginia. The primary threat will be strong thunderestorm winds. The Marginal Risk comes up to Lake Erie.

Storm Reports from Monday May 2 2022

Here’s storm reports from Monday – centered in Central Oklahoma. Note the blue dots (strong thunderstorm winds) around the Great Salt Lake in Utah. There were four small and inconsequential tornadoes. Hail up to 4″ in diameter was reported in Seminole OK.

Much warmer next week…we’ll see 70s and probably some 80s…it’ll turn slightly cooler for the 3rd week of May, but next week, several days will be summerlike.

ALSO: Waterspouts around the world on May 2.