Chance of a Shower or Storm

Bill's Blog

We’ve had very little severe thunderstorm activity in Michigan so far in 2021 (one small tornado at Preservation Lakes south of Cutlerville on April 10). While we have a chance of a shower or thunderstorm, the odds of severe weather in a given spot in Michigan is small. There will likely be more light showers than thunderstorms over the next several days. Most of the showers will produce relatively light rainfall totals.

Above is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for today (Saturday, 5/22). Much of Michigan had been in the Marginal Risk Area, but that has now been taken down to a General (not severe) Thunderstorm Risk (light green on the map). While there will be widely scattered showers and the chance of an isolated severe storm is possible, the odds are small enough to be excluded from even a marginal risk area. As you can see, the greater threat today will be in the High Plains from W. Nebraska south to W Texas.

Severe Weather Outlook Map for Sunday 5/23

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Sunday, 5/23. All of Michigan is in the General (not severe) thunderstorm risk area. The greatest threat for severe weather will again be in the Plains, from N. Dakota south to W. Kansas and E. Colorado in the Slight Risk Area.

Severe Weather Outlook Map for Monday 5/24

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Monday, 5/24. Once again, there is a General (not severe) risk for all of Michigan. Monday there is a Marginal Risk (in dark green on the map) from Minnesota to E. New Mexico.

72-Hour Rainfall Forecast from the Weather Prediction Center

Above is the total rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for the 72 hour period from Saturday AM to Tuesday AM. West Michigan is expected to get 1/4 to 3/4″ of rain. That’s not enough to end the drought, but any significant rain would be welcome. Note the heavier rain from Texas up through the Plains States. There’s a batch of heavier total rainfall in Wisconsin. There’s also significant rain and mountain snow in the northern Rockies.

Southern Michigan Radar
Regional Radar
  • Afternoon temperatures will stay warmer than average – in the low-mid 80s. It will be cooler near Lake Michigan with southwest winds.
  • The Sat. AM water temperature of Reeds Lake was up to 67°. Lake Michigan buoy temperatures Sat AM: S. Haven 58°, Port Sheldon 52°, Muskegon 53° and Ludington 47°.

Here’s the latest Grand Rapids NWS forecast discussion, a U.S. lightning map, current Michigan weather observations and a Michigan weather map.

At 6 am Sat., the temperature was a (relatively) warm 68° at Houghton in the U.P., but a cooler 47° by the Lake Superior shore at Copper Harbor.

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