The image above is the track of some significant rotation on SW edge of a thunderstorm that moved across E. Ionia and Clinton Counties. Below is the area that came under the Tornado Warning.

Tornado Warning E. Ionia and Clinton Counties until 10:45 pm

Hook echo on top reflectivity image on radar near the town of Riley. Second image is velocity – The place where the colors come together near the town of Riley indicates significant rotation in the storm at that location. Please let us know if you observe any wind damage in this area. Lightning video from the storm when it was near Flint.

Here’s what the Storm Prediction Center said about the severe weather situation Monday PM/night:

The Storm Prediction Center continues the Slight Risk of a severe storm tonight in the yellow area on the map, generally south of a line from Benton Harbor to Detroit and the Marginal Risk north to the Mackinac Bridge. They say: “Thunderstorms associated with wind damage will be possible across parts of Illinois into lower Michigan on Monday….strongest forcing will be at higher latitudes and scattered convection is expected to develop across the Great Lakes then build southwest within veered flow regime into IL ahead of the front. Prefrontal buoyancy is expected to be fairly strong with MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg from eastern KS toward the southern tip of Lake MI. Storms that form within this air mass would likely pose some threat for damaging winds and hail, especially from IL into lower MI where more meaningful height falls will be noted.” The Severe Risk Areas that were in effect were on the map below.

  • Current Radar – Here’s lightning data. Gust to 41.4 at the Muskegon Beach. There were about 5,100 Consumer’s Energy customers that lost power
  • There was tree damage in Clinton County
Meso-map from the Storm Prediction Center forecast the storms

SPC says: “Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent . SUMMARY…Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible over the next hour or two as the line of storms moving across Lake Michigan moves into southwest Lower Michigan.

Risk of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point this Monday PM/night

The above map was the risk of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point.

Risk of wind damage within 25 miles of a given point.

The risk of wind damage within 25 miles of a given point was 15% across much of S. Lower Michigan (5% across central and northern Lower Michigan.

The risk of severe hail (1″ in diameter or greater) was at 15% for southern Lower Michigan and 5% for northern and central Lower Michigan.

Severe Weather Outlook Map for Tuesday, July 12, 2022

The Severe Weather Outlook Map for Tuesday showed a General Risk of a (non-severe) thunderstorm over central and northern Lower Michigan and Upper Michigan. Therewas a Marginal Risk over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin and a Marginal to Slight Risk from far NE Tennessee to Maine.

Percent of Average Rainfall over the Past 30 Days

The map above shows the percent of average rainfall over the past 30 days thru July 10. Rainfall amounts have been significantly higher south of Grand Rapids than to the north. Less than half of average rainfall has fallen in Ludington, Big Rapids and Mount Pleasant. This is where we need the rain the most.

ALSO: Whoever thought it was a good idea to put Bucky Badger on a jet ski? Look at the rotation in this storm. -80.3C at Concordia Station, Antarctica – coldest there in 3 years.