This is the 6-10 Day Temperature Forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for Oct. 16-20. Cooler than average temperatures are favored over the entire eastern half of the country (Maine is near average). Warmer than average temperatures are expected in the Western U.S.

Today (Mon.) will be sunny and mild with light winds and afternoon high temps. in the low-mid 60s…a nice day. Today will be the calmest day of the week. Tomorrow (Tue.) will be partly to mostly sunny into midday – then clouds move in from the southwest with a chance of a shower late in the day. Most of the day should be dry. Winds will pick up a little from the south and it’ll be the warmest day of the week with highs in the low 70s – maybe the last 70-degree day of 2022.

Wednesday, we’re still in the mild air, but cloudy and breezy with scattered showers – mid 60s. Late Wednesday a decent cold front moves through. Thursday will be significantly colder (mid-upper 40s much of the day) with a stiff wind off Lake Michigan. Wed. into Thu. we’ll have at least
Small Craft Advisories if not Gale Warnings for the lake. Friday’s still breeze and chilly with temps. in the 40s and a few scattered showers. The northern part of the state will likely see some mixed snowflakes.

Saturday, we may get by with one dry day or mostly dry day – and not quite as cold in the PM. Then another cold front brings showers and even colder air. Rain showers are likely and both the European and GFS models hint at the chance of some wet snow mixing in Monday night or early Tuesday.

I’m always thinking this time of year about the winter forecast. Mixed signals, but at this point, I’d give a nod to a touch colder/snowier than average during the early part of winter (Nov. – early Jan.). One parameter we look at is Siberian snow cover at the end of October – it’s not the end of October yet, but snow cover is above average and it’s already very cold there. Two cities I look at in Siberia are Oymyakon and Verkoyansk. The links will show you how cold it is in eastern Asia.

6-10 Day Precipitation Forecast for Oct. 16-20

Here’s the 6-10 Day Precipitation Forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. Much of the country is expected to be drier than average. You can see the “monsoon” moisture continuing to reach up from Mexico into the SW U.S. The monsoon showers and thundershowers have been widely scattered with most areas getting little rain, but any rain helps. The Colorado River at the Grand Canyon is running at 9,800 cubic feet per second compared to an average flow of 8,900 cfs.

Precipitation chances this week

Here’s the chance of measurable rainfall each day this week. Today it’s zero…same as the number of points the Detroit Lions scored yesterday. Tuesday’s 20% is late in the day. That shoots up to 80-90% on Wednesday – still a high 70% of Thursday and 60% on Friday. We’re back down to 15% on Saturday, then 30-40% on Sunday and 60% on Monday the 17th.

Low Temperatures Saturday night

Here’s low temperatures early Sunday morning. The wind was southwest and the water temperature of Lake Michigan was approx. 61. Note the warming effect of the lake. Inland areas were mainly in the 30s, while the temperature held in the low 50s at Muskegon and S. Haven. Ludington’s wind went due south off the land for a brief time and they reached 39.

Florida Power Outages – images from poweroutage.us

Both Florida and Puerto Rico made excellent progress in restoring power over the weekend. As of 2:30 am Monday – they had 18,370 customers without power. That’s down from nearly 2.6 million customers that were without power just after the storm. 80% of the outages are in Lee County (Fort Myers). In a few places, there’s no house left to hook back up to.

Puerto has now turned all blue!

Puerto Rico is down to 2,954 customers without power – that’s over the whole island. That’s 0.002% of all customers.

Crews from 33 states were/are in Florida working on restoring power…over 42,000 people working long hours – often far from home. They deserve our thanks.

September High Temperatures

Here’s September 2022 high temperatures in Grand Rapids. Red means above average, blue is below average and green is exactly average. We had an average high temperature for the month of 72.8°. Sixteen days were warmer than average and 13 were cooler than average. The warmest day was 9/3 with a high of 85° and the coolest was 9/28 with a high of 54°.