Confidence Grows – Cold Pattern for Late Jan.

Bill's Blog
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Confidence is growing that we’ll move into a colder (and maybe snowier) weather pattern in about a week.  The graphic above is the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.  This is for Jan. 19-25 and you can see the area in blue that has a good chance of below average temperatures from the Northern Plains across the Great Lakes to the Northeast and south to the Texas Coast.

This is the 3-4 week temperature forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for Jan. 26 to Feb. 9.  The Great Lakes and Northeast south to the Gulf Coast are predicted to have a higher probability of colder than average temperatures. 

This is the Arctic Oscillation – generally, when this is positive, there is a higher likelihood of warmer weather in the Great Lakes and eastern U.S. and when it is negative, there is a higher chance of colder than average weather.  It’s not always the case, but a forecasting tool that we look at.  You can see this index was positive (warm) for much of Sept. and Oct….then went negative in November (and we had a cold and snowy pattern…then positive for much of December…now it’s headed down.(see the red lines at the end, showing that the majority of the members of this model are showing a significant drop for not this coming week, but the week after. 

Here’s high temperatures from Friday.  You can see the cold, Arctic Air that stretches from N. New England across S. Canada, where highs were in the single figures.  You can see Greenville, Maine at 4 above, Watertown NY, 6 above at Watertown NY, 10 above at Toronto,  The warmest spot was McAllen TX with 82 and the coldest was Philadelphia NY at -13.  The Arctic air is entrenched over Alaska.  McGrath had a high/low of -43/-53 on Friday.  That’s cold! 

Check this out:  U.S. radar timelapse for the entire year of 2018.  Look at Hurricane Florence coming into the Carolinas in Sept. and Hurricane Michael coming into the Florida Panhandle in Oct. 

We miss the Saturday snowstorm – which goes to our south…here’s N. Indiana radar:

 
Click for latest Base Reflectivity radar loop from the Northern Indiana radar and current weather warnings

and regional radar:

 
Central Great Lakes sector
Most of us will stay dry for at least the next 4 days.  There could be a little light snow or flurries on Weds. as the next cold front drops down…colder, but not real cold behind that front.  

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