Chance of a Shower This Saturday PM

Bill's Blog
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This Saturday will starts with patchy fog…then partly to mostly cloudy and warm – with a chance of a shower in the PM/evening, slight chance of a thunderstorm.   Check out the waterspout over Lake Michigan.  Showers will be mostly in the afternoon and brief.  They’ll diminish as the sun sets and the days heat wanes.    

Here’s regional radar:

 
 
Central Great Lakes sector loop

The bulk of the heavier rain will likely stay south in Indiana and Ohio again, but any rain would be welcome by most.  Here’s storm total rainfall Weds. estimated by the G.Rapids radar:
Weds. PM, Lansing had 0.81″ of rain in 20 min. plus a wind gust to 42 mph.  Other rainfall totals:  0.17″ at the Ford Airport in G.R., 0.11″ Oshtemo, 0.09″ West Olive (Ottawa Co.),  0.02″ Kalamazoo Airport and 0.02″ Dowagiac. 
 
This is Storm Total Rainfall from Thursday.  There’s a lot of light blue.  That is trace amounts to a tenth of an inch…not much.  Here’s some 24-hour rainfall totals ending at 8 pm Thurs:  0.81″ Lansing, 0.65″ Ford Airport Grand Rapids, 0.19″ Jackson, 0.10″ Grant, 0.09″ Constantine, 0.06″ Marshall and Coldwater, 0.04″ Mendon, 0.03″ Mecosta, 0.02″ Ceresco, 0.01″ Lakeview.  There was a funnel cloud that reached halfway to the ground near Lakewood Club in Muskegon Co.  Since June 1, Grand Rapids rainfall is 3.25″ below average.
 
Here’s Storm Total Rainfall From Friday.  Note the red spot west of Milwaukee.  Watertown, Wisconsin (aptly named) got 6″ of rain Thurs. night into Friday. AM.  Waterloo WI (also aptly named!) got 5.5″ of rain, and Milton Wi. had 5.35″ of rain.  Roads were impossible and fields flooded from the heavy rain. 
 
Here’s some rainfall totals from W. Michigan on Friday.  Oshtemo had 2″ of rain in 2 hours – that’s just west of Kalamazoo.  Clarksville is in SW Ionia Co.  I had only 0.02″ at my house and I’m still really dry. 
 
I’ll update again Sat. evening.  Have a great weekend. 
 
  Here’s local radar:
 
 
Click for latest Composite Reflectivity radar image from the Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI radar and current weather warnings
 
The Weekend should be dry and warm – mid 80s.  A cool front brings another round of showers next. Mon. PM to Tue. AM – then a couple days that will be a little cooler (highs upper 70s, maybe).  I don’t see any real significant cooldown into the first week of Sept. 
 
Got this note from Bill Marino at the NWS, reminding us we had a dry period last late summer:  “Believe it or not last year from July 14 through October 3rd GRR had only 2.45″ of rain, normal would be 10.39″ for that period of time. During that time GRR had only one day with more than a 1/2″ of rain.   Normally we get around 14 days with a 1/4″ or more of rain during that time, last year we had only 5 days!  This year, at GRR, it started to be dry on July 2nd but we have had 4 events during that time with at least 1/2″ of rain (only 1 time in 2017 drought). The 60-day total rainfall departure from normal in 2017,  reached 6.12″ on on Oct 04th. That was the greatest 60-day negative departure from normal on rainfall since 6.88 inches in Oct 2 1969.   Currently (as of the 14th) GRR was 2.73″ below normal for the past 60 days  In 2017  GRR had 3 months ina row with less than 2.00″ of rain,  The last time that happened during the months from May through Oct was 1976! (that was followed by a very cold winter in 1976-77)    So, from what I can tell, last year was drier during this time into early October. Now that is only for GRR,  This year the Drought 1 area for the entire state of Michigan is much bigger but Kent County is not in the D1 yet.  GRR was in a D1 drought by late Sept and early October in 2017.  I can’t speak for your station (East Gr. Rapids with only 0.36″ of rain for August) and I have not looked that closely at Grandville.  We keep missing the rain there too.  I have had only .61″ this month.  One other point, normally the daily frequency of .01″ of rain on a given day is at or below 33% from June 30th through Sept 03rd.”  

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