Sat. late AM update: The Storm Prediction Center has now added a Marginal Risk Area to Lower Michigan, generally east of a line from New Buffalo to Grand Rapids to Houghton Lake. SPC says: “Farther north and in association with a subtle shortwave trough cresting the midlevel ridge, a weak surface cold front will move slowly southeastward to the mid MS Valley and the upper Great Lakes. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F and daytime heating ahead of the weak front will support widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon into this evening from northern IL into Lower MI. Vertical shear will be a little stronger over Lower MI (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt), where organized multicells or marginal supercells will be possible. Buoyancy will increase with southward extent, with MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg in Lower MI to 2500 J/kg in IL. Thermodynamic profiles will support the potential for a few wet microbursts and occasional damaging outflow gusts this afternoon into this evening.”
We have a chance of a shower or thunderstorm this PM. A few of the stronger storms could contain strong gusty winds, small hail and/or heavy rain. The SPC discussion (click the link for the updated discussion) will be updated this PM. The local G.R. NWS discussion also discusses possible strong gusty winds in a few of the t-storms this PM.
Here’s storm reports from Friday. You can see a few in Michigan. There was a 66 mph wind gust at the Haines Airport at Three Rivers. They reported a shower (but no lightning at the time). The temperature at Three Rivers dropped from 87 to 69 in less than an hour. There was tree damage at Muir, Gladwin, Farwell, Harrison and Winegars MI. Roscommon had 3/4″ hail and gusty winds. Other wind gusts included 51 mph at Flint, 59 mph at Breckenridge, 45 mph at Mt. Pleasant, 43 mph at Dundee and Grand Rapids (arpt.), 39 mph at Lansing, 37 mph at Entrican in Montcalm Co. and 36 mph at East Lansing. They had 2.34″ of rain NE of Cheboygan and 1.49″ at Rogers City.
This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Sunday PM/night. There is a Marginal Risk across N. Wisconsin – mainly for isolated wind damage. As the storms cross Lake Michigan after sunset, they should weaken, but we’ll have to watch for an isolated strong storm making it across the lake early Sunday night. After that dry weather is expected from Monday – Thursday of next week with cooler temperatures back into the 70s in the afternoons and much lower humidity.
We remain in an overall dry pattern…as I keep saying, we should appreciate the rain we get – even if it comes over the weekend.
ALSO: Solar assets are ‘chronically underperforming’ and modules degrading faster than expected“. Earth’s temperature was 0.01 deg.C colder than average yesterday due to a very cold Antarctica. Check out the forecast for the South Pole. The Pacific NW coast stays cool and showery. The rest of the West stays hot. From www.spaceweather.com: “Something big may be about to happen on the sun. “We call it the Termination Event,” says Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), “and it’s very, very close to happening.” Very heavy rain in VA and MD. Earthquake in S. California. Missouri mammatus. “The temperature gauge barely moved making it the coldest June day in Sydney, Australia since 1899” … which is pre federation. Tropical storm could form in the Western Gulf of Mexico and affect Texas late this week. Pretty pic. of Bear Lake in Rocky Mt. National Park. Not a tornado. Disneyworld sunset. 7 days in a row of 90 degrees in Minneapolis – stagnant pattern. Nice thunderstorm time-lapse. Bahamas sunset. Nice lightning flash. “Blizzards smash Australia“.
From Accu-Weather: “During the month of May, the United States saw 288 preliminary reports of tornadoes, slightly above the May average of 276 tornadoes. None of these storms were rated as stronger than an EF2, marking the first time there has not been a tornado of EF3 strength or stronger in May since 1950, when record-keeping began. There were also no deadly tornadoes in the U.S. in May, making this the first year without a killer tornado in May since 2014.” Awesome anvil.