This winter we were in La Nina (colder than average surface water along the Equator west of South America in the Pacific Ocean)…and the winter was pretty close to the average weather we get during a La Nina. It was wet in the Pacific NW, dry from California east to Florida, warm in the Southeast, cold from Montana east to the Western Lakes and wet through the Ohio Valley and S. Great Lakes.
This is the Probability of La Nina, La Nada (neutral) and El Nino through early next winter. Our current La Nina fades to neutral and we may be heading to a weak El Nino for the bulk of next winter. A strong El Nino can bring a very mild winter to the Great Lakes (1982-83)…but…a weak El Nino can bring warm to occasionally very cold winters to the Great Lakes. I’ll keep tracking this…when we get into mid-summer, we should have a better idea of where we’re headed.