A Mostly Cloudy and Cool Pattern

Bill's Blog

It’s been a cloudy and cool pattern. Eight of the last 9 days have been cooler than average. During that time, we’ve only had one day warmer than 45° and the last 10 days have brought us just 16.6% of possible sunshine.

We had at least a trace of snow on 8 days this month. That compares to 7 days in all of Nov 2020. We’ve had 3.4″ of snowfall in G.R. so far this month. Up in the U.P., the town of Herman has had 25″ of snow this winter, Three Lakes has had 19.3″, Grand Marais reports 18″ for the season. Marquette is at 11.6″ for the month and season.

High Temperatures for the Next Five Days

As of now, it looks like Monday will be the coolest day of the week and Wednesday will be the warmest. The best bet for a dry day looks to be Tuesday, though much of Monday and Wednesday should be dry.

Wave Forecast for 1 am early Monday AM

This is the GLCFS wave forecast for the Great Lakes for 1 am Sunday night (early Monday AM). The forecast is for waves up to 11 feet along the West Michigan shore and up to 17 feet near Whitefish Point in Lake Superior. Here in West Michigan, we could see gusts to 40 mph at the shore Sunday evening/night and 30-35 mph inland. Gust could reach 45-50 mph over eastern Lake Superior. You can see there is a long fetch (distance the air travels over the water) with a northwest wind.

The mid-Lake Michigan buoy was still out there Saturday (though I expect them to pick it up for the season this week) and was showing 4 foot waves and a water temp. of 50°.

Muskegon Channel at 4:40 pm Saturday

This was the Muskegon Channel at 4:40 pm Saturday. I did not see any boats going in and out of the channel (though I didn’t look for long), but you can see a lot of fishermen on the pier in the bottom left of the picture.

Michigan City Lighthouse Looking West

This pic. was Friday PM at 4:34 EST looking west. With a south wind, the lake was pretty calm. Look close and you can see the skyscrapers of Chicago in the distance just about the water and a touch left of center in the picture.

High Temperatures in Alaska for this Sunday 11 21

Here’s forecast high temperatures for Alaska for this Sunday (11/21). Much of the state is unseasonably cold – seeing January-like readings in November. Anchorage had a high temp. of +6F on Saturday – the average high is 27°. Northway was the coldest spot in AK with a high of -27F and a low of -44F. I hope that air doesn’t break loose and head toward the Great Lakes. We’re not quite ready for that yet.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

This is the current sea surface temperature anomaly (difference from average). Blue areas are where sea surface water temperatures are cooler than average and yellow, orange and red indicates areas that have warmer than average water. You can see the La Nina – cooler than average water along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. You can also see quite a cold pool south of Alaska. The water is a little bit warmer than average in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. There is also a “warm pool” northwest of Hawaii.

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook for Nov. 29 – Dec. 5

This is the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for Nov. 29 to Dec. 6. After a 2-week period with temperatures a little cooler than average, the relatively milder air makes a run toward the Great Lakes. After that, I think we’re back to a cooler pattern relative to average for mid-late December.

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