A Breezy Weekend – Next Week Will Be Dry

Bill's Blog

It’ll be a breezy weekend. There’s a Beach Hazards Statement in effect today for all the lakeshore counties from Leelanau down to LaPorte and Porter Counties in Indiana. The Statement continues through Sunday morning from Muskegon County to the north, but continues through Monday morning for areas from Ottawa County to the south.

There’s also Small Craft Advisories out for the weekend for waves of 3 to 7 feet.

The west winds will bring warmer water back to the Michigan. An episode of upwelling caused water temperatures to crash into the 40s this past week, but the water temps. have started to recover a bit.

Graph of the Water Temperature at the Ludington Buoy

Here’s a graph of the water temperature at the Ludington Buoy over the past 5 days. You can see the tremendous upwelling event on 9/22 (Wed.) that sent the water temperature crashing from near 70° to near 40°. While there has been some significant fluctuation, the water temp. has bounced back up above 50°. The mid-Lake Michigan buoy shows a water temp. of 66, so the west wind should push that warmer water back toward the Michigan shore.

Total Rainfall for Sept. 25 – Oct. 2 from the Weather Prediction Center

The map above is the Total Rainfall Forecast for the coming week from the Weather Prediction Center. While we have an outside chance of a (mainly light) shower on Sunday, the coming week looks dry in West Michigan with lots of pleasant sunshine.

Weather for the Week Ahead – Graphic from the G.R. NWS

This graphic from the G.R. NWS shows the weather for the coming week. The average high temperature for the week is in the upper 60s. We’ll have high temperatures in the 70s.

Back on August 2, I wrote: “I think August, September and at least the first half of October will be warmer than average in West Michigan.” So far, that forecast is working out as planned. August ended 3.2 deg. warmer than average and September is currently 1.6 degrees warmer than average. The first few days of October will definitely be warmer than average.

At some point, the pattern will flip to cold in November and I still think December is a cold month, likely the coldest December in at least 4 years. Last winter, February was the coldest (6 degrees colder than average) and snowiest (30″ for G.R.) month of the winter. This year we’ll have an earlier start to winter with a good chance of a White Christmas this year. BTW – Christmas is exactly 3 months away (I’m writing this on 9/25).

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