The Climate Prediction Center released their 30-Day Outlook for the month of May today. They are expecting warmer than average weather in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states and also along the West Coast. They expect cooler than average temperatures from the Rockies and Upper Midwest down through the Southern High Plains. This should produce a healthy (for May) contrast of temperatures and lead to a storm track from Texas up into the Great Lakes and Northeast.
This is the 30-day precipitation outlook for the month of May. Much of the country continues to be in a wetter than average pattern and there could be more heavy rain on saturated ground from Central Texas up into Missouri. As of May 2 evening, Grand Rapids is 4.25″ above average precipitation for 2019.
Here’s the Severe Weather Climatology Map for May 3rd. The greatest likelihood of severe weather is in Oklahoma and North Texas. Note that there is a greater chance of severe weather in S. Lower Michigan than over far South Texas and over much of the Florida Peninsula.
Look at how the map changes as we get into early summer. Severe weather shifts north with the most likely area to see a severe storm on June 24 in Kansas and far S. Nebraska. There is a higher risk area from E. Indiana into Ohio, where stalled fronts generate thunderstorms with wind damage. There is also a peak area from NE Georgia up into the Western Carolinas. On June 24th, there’s a greater risk of a severe storm in Kalamazoo or Battle Creek than in Dallas, Texas, where severe weather is more common in April and May.
It’s been too cool for much severe weather in Michigan of late, but that will change as temps. warm as the month continues.