Fri. AM Update - There was at least one confirmed tornado in Shiawassee County near Durand...50 structures damaged, trailers destroyed, roofs off. No serious injuries. The damage seemed to start near Bancroft and northeast from there toward Vernon. The tornado hit around 7 pm and ran parallel to I-69. One woman was trapped in here home by downed power lines. Also in SE Michigan...damage at Sterling Heights, a gust to 60 mph at Howell. Hail the size of ping-pong balls at Chelsea and 1" hail at Manchester.
In West Michigan, wind damage was reported at Urbandale west of Battle Creek. Gusts reached 67 mph at the S. Haven airport and 56 mph at the Battle Creek Airport. Here's some peak wind gusts:
An Areal Flood Warning is in effect until 6:15 Fri. from Muskegon-Newaygo-Montcalm and Gratiot Counties to the north. There is also a Flood Warning for the PIne River at Alma, which is now about 3" above flood stage and expected to climb another 6". This is due to a combination of heavy rainfall totals and melting snow. There are over a dozen roads closed due to high water on the road. Here's some rainfall totals:
Also, nickel-sized hail in Delton, 3/4" hail in Holland and small hail in Allegan, East Gr. Rapids, Port Sheldon, Comstock, Vicksburg, Comstock Park, Walker, Grand Haven and at the Ford Airport in G.R. Numerous reports of hail up to 1" in diameter in the Chicago area with minor thunderstorm wind damage.
Two tornadoes in W. Kentucky - pics. here.
SPC said: "Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from a portion of the Southeast U.S. into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be possible along with some hail...Both discrete supercells and line segments are possible with damaging wind and a few tornadoes the main threats, mainly from late morning through early evening."
Several maps here to break down each severe weather parameter. Above is the chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point. Green is 2%, Brown is 5 percent and yellow is 10%.
The map above is the chance of a wind damage report within 25 miles of a given point. The brown is 5%, the yellow is 15% and the red is 30%. This is the most likely threat.
This was the percent chance of a severe hail report within 25 miles of a given point. The brown is 5% and the yellow is 15%.
So, for much of Southern Lower Michigan, the probabilities of a report within 25 miles were 15% wind, 5% tornado and 5% hail.
The map of storm reports above shows several corridors of severe weather...one from Illinois to SE Michigan, along along the Ohio River and a third across MS and AL.
Tuesday...There two tornadoes reported, 10 reports of severe hail up to baseball-size (which "destroyed" cars) and wind gusts as high as 76 mph at Carlsbad NM. There were only 9 severe wind reports on Weds. There were hundreds of damage reports from the general strong winds around the extemely intense low pressure center...from Texas and New Mexico north to the Dakotas. Gusts were as strong as 92 mph. Denver had a gust to 80 mph at the airport.
This is the warning map as of Weds. AM. WOW! That's a lot of advisories and warnings. Blizzard Warnings from Colorado to N. Dakota...Flood Watches from N. Kansas to Upper Michigan...High Wind Warnings from Kansas to Mexico and a High Wind Advisory from Texas to W. Illinois. More heavy snow for the Rockies. This storm will pump the warm air up toward Lower Michigan today and tomorrow and then the colder air back in on Friday.
Wild weather ahead...stay tuned for updates!
Also: March 1-12 was 8.4 degrees colder than average. We had 100% sun on Mon. and 94% sun on Tue. - the sunniest back-to-back days since Jan. 20-21, check out the Flash Flood in Brazil! Big snowflakes in Italy. Awesome shelf cloud over the Adriatic Sea. Neat rain pics. here.
Example of Man Influencing Weather
Great Lakes Maximum Ice Extent
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