Hurricane/Tropical Storm Elsa – Moving through Eastern New England


This Saturday 7/10 – Elsa is moving away from Maine and through the Canadian Atlantic Provinces. There were a few 60-78 mph gusts along the New England Coast. Here’s a look at some waves kicked up by Elsa in the Dominican Republic. Here’s some peak wind gusts as Elsa moved through the Florida Keys:

Key West had an average wind speed of 27.5 mph on Tuesday. They also had 4.49″ of rain from Monday into Tuesday from Elsa. Marathon Key had an even 2″.

Above is a list of Tropical Storm/Hurricanes for the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico for 2021. Note that the list contains 3 prominent names from Disney’s Frozen (Ana, Elsa and Olaf).

We’re already down to the letter “E” – the earliest we’ve ever had an “E” Tropical Storm in the Atlantic. When you hear that fact, remember that we’re seeing and naming storms that would not have had a name decades ago (before weather satellites could see storms over the oceans). The next two weeks look pretty quiet in the tropics, pretty much worldwide.

Local Radar
Key West Radar

Hurricane tracks of the first four tropical storms of 2021

Here’s the Tropical Storm tracks of 2021 with Claudette on the far left, Bill forming off the coast of GA and moving NE out into the Atlantic, Danny moving WNW and coming inland in S. Carolina and Ana staying well out in the Atlantic.

Of the first four named storms of the year, none lasted more than 3 days and three of the four generated sustained winds of just 45 mph (“Bill” managed ro reach 60 mph). Claudette did spawn an EF2 tornado at East Brewton AL and 14 fatalities were blamed on the storm. Again, it depends on what you consider a storm-related fatality. A traffic accident on wet roads that contributed to the mishap could count as a storm-related fatality, but the same accident could have been caused by a weak shower with a calm wind.

cone graphic

The storm is tracking through Florida and then up the East Coast. As I write this, the storm is expected to be at Tropical Storm strength. It’s unlikely to become a major hurricane (111 mph sustained winds).

Here’s the Forecast Discussion, Forecast Advisory, in Spanish. Here’s South Florida weather observations.

Forecast Rainfall over the next week

Here’s the 168-hour (7 day) total rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Note the swath of heavy rain west of Florida – that’s Elsa – I think the heaviest rain may occur a touch east of this forecast map. Look at all the rain from Mexico up into Texas, along the Gulf of Mexico and up into coastal Carolina. Not a lot of rain for Michigan, ample rain in the Corn Belt and low to no rainfall over much of the West.

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