The above map is a forecast of the amount of rainfall for the next week (Thursday to Thursday AM Oct. 7). Total rainfall is expected to be a little higher (over an inch) at the Indiana border and a little lighter to the north. The overnight European model gives G.R. 0.97″ of rain for the period and the GFS is at a lower 0.50″. The main story is there will be scattered showers from Saturday (most in PM) through Monday and everyone will see at least some rainfall.
The map shows rain spreading from Mexico, Texas and New Mexico to the northeast, across the Ohio Valley and up into New England. There will also be cool rain along the Pacific NW Coast.
This map (above) is the rainfall forecast for the 48 hours of Thursday (9/30) and Friday (10/1). You can see Lower Michigan is dry. We’ll have another sunny, mild day today (Thu.) and another dry and pleasant day for Friday – and Football Frenzy.
However, the rain will pose some problems for the Saturday college football games. Showers are at least possible, if not likely at Madison WI (Michigan at Wisconsin, noon start, mid 60s), E. Lansing (W. Kentucky at Michigan St. (low 60s at 7:30 pm), Oxford OH (Central Michigan at Miami of Ohio (temps. low-mid 70s with at chance of a thundershower along with the scattered showers) and at South Bend (Cincinnati at Notre Dame – 60s – that game is on WOOD TV8). Western Michigan should have dry and pleasant weather (increasing clouds, but no rain) for their game at Buffalo.
There could be showers for the Lions/Bears game at Soldier Field in Chicago, probably low-mid 60s.
This is the latest general temperature forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center. I agree with them that warmer than average weather is expected through the first two weeks of October, with no general freeze for S. Lower Michigan. The fall color change will progress at a slow pace. In my notes over the years, I’ve had the average best color in Western Michigan around Oct. 18 (latest peak color around Oct. 23). Keep in mind that average temperatures do drop (upper 60s now to mid 50s by the end of October).
The overall rainfall outlook from CPC for the 2nd week of October shows drier than average conditions for Michigan and the Great Lakes. This means fewer hours of rain and probably a higher than average amount of sunshine.
ALSO: We now have Hurricane Victor in the Atlantic Ocean – no threat to land from this one. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic will be called “Wanda”. Then we’ll go back to the letter “A” and start a new list of names.
Enjoy this last day of September!