Look at the snow that was falling this morning at the National Weather Service Office in Marquette in Upper Michigan. It was sticking a bit. As I write this (1:45 pm Fri.), the temperature here is just 37 degrees with a chilly north wind.
Here’s what the Marquette NWS said: “WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS TO FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIXING IN HERE AND THERE, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BEING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WEST. WITH THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS, IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.”
For Northern Lower MI and Eastern Upper Michigan, the Gaylord NWS says: “…WITH INCREASINGLY COLD AIR ALOFT…COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.”
Don’t get too excited…Even if it were to snow a little (and that’s a VERY BIG “if”), it’ll melt as it falls…and it may be that only a few spots see snow, which would favor the U.P. and maybe the higher elevations of N. Lower MI.
There’s a Frost Advisory for tonight for much of West Michigan (the counties in medium blue on the map above. There’s a Freeze Warning (in purple on the map) for Eaton, Ingham, Calhoun, Jackson, Branch and Hillsdale Counties. The winds will turn a bit more westerly tonight, prevently lakeshore areas from getting a freeze/frost. Inland areas will have a chance of frost/freeze as skies should become clear to partly cloudy and become light.
The Wed. AM run of the European model had the coldest air a mile above the ground at 23.4 deg. Friday night. The surface temp. at the same time is forecast to be in the mid-upper 30s (above freezing). Lake Michigan is relatively warm (low 60s), so lake-effect rain showers would be likely with the surface flow off the lake.
Here’s a calendar snowing the record daily snowfalls for Grand Rapids during the month of October. We’ve had 2 days – the 2nd and the 15th, when we’ve never had a snowflake fall. On 13 days, the record snowfall is only a trace (“T” on the calendar above). The earliest significant snowfall was 2″ on Oct. 12, 2006.
In 1989, Grand Rapids officially had 4.5″ of snowfall. I remember that day well. It was windy, with temperatures all day in the low-mid 30s. We had lightning and thunder with the snow. 1.3″ fell after midnight, so the storm total was 5.8″. I had close to 9″ of heavy, wet snow at my house. I was out with a hockey stick knocking the snow off the bushes.
After that snow…we had a period of record warmth with temperatures in the mid 70s from the 24th to the 30th. The weather stayed crazy in Nov. and Dec. We had a record high temp. of 70 on Nov. 13th, then 15.8″ of snow in 4 days from the 15th to the 19th. On the 17th and 18th, high temperatures were in the low-mid 20s. That was followed by the coldest December ever – 10 degrees colder than average. The high temperature (not the low temperature) was +5 on 12/21/89 and we had a stretch from the 12th to the 27th when the average low temperature was +1.6. Then, Jan. 1990 was 10 deg. warmer than average with 13 days in the 40s.
The heaviest daily snowfall in October in G.R. was 8.2″ on 2.27.67. That was the same year we had a tremendous blizzard on 1.26.67.
The 6-10 Day Temperature Forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows the push of cooler than average air across the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast for Oct. 5