This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for today (Fri.). There is an Enhanced Outlook (in orange on the map) across Minnesota, Wisconsin and a part of the U.P. Surrounding the Enhanced Risk is a Slight Risk Area that includes much of Lower Michigan. SPC says: “A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms with strong tornadoes and potentially widespread significant wind damage may occur from central Minnesota across northern Wisconsin..Upgrading to Moderate Risk this outlook for the potential threats of multiple strong tornadoes and a derecho …. CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space in this region is forecast to be exceptionally rare for mid July.” Below is the tornado probability map:

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point

The greatest threat for tornadoes will be across Minnesota and NW Wisconsin with just a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point generally north of I-96.

Probability of a severe hail report within 25 miles of a given point

Here’s the percent chance of a severe hail report (1″ in diameter or greater) within 25 miles of a given point. Again, the highest probably in MN and Northwest WI. There is a 5% chance over most of Lower Michigan.

This is the percent chance of a severe wind report (58 mph and over) Friday/Friday night. It’s rare to see a 45% chance of a severe wind report. The highest probability is in MN, WI, and the far southern U.P. While not the highest threat area, there is a significant 30% outlook area (in orange on the map) for Northwest Lower Michigan, and a 15% chance over much of the rest of Lower Michigan – again generally north of I-96.

This has the potential to be a big event, with widespread wind damage across MN, Wisconsin and perhaps Lower Michigan. I’m going to be heading to NW Lower Michigan to have dinner with daughter #3. I’ve been on vacation this week. Stay up with the WOOD Weather Ap, and WOOD-TV for the latest. I’ll post if and when I can, but this is planned family time for me and I won’t be on the blog and social media much.

Severe Weather Outlook Area for Sat. 7 20 19

Here’s the severe weather outlook area for Sat. 7/20. There is a Marginal Risk Area from SE Nebraska and far N. Kansas to Lower Michigan. SPC says: “…it seems some of the early day activity may continue into parts of the central Great Lakes with other development occurring during the afternoon in the vicinity of the front farther west in IA. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms.”

This is the Day3 (Sunday) Risk Area from the Storm Prediction Center.  There is a Marginal Risk of a severe t-storm from SE KS and NE OK to far NW NY.  In Michigan, it's generally south of a line from Benton Harbor to just north of Port Huron.  Again, the primary threat is isolated wind damage.  

Excessive Heat Warning for Fri. and Sat.

We also have the Excessive Heat Warning for Ottawa, Kent, Ionia and Clinton Counties to the south and a Heat Advisory for Muskegon, Newaygo and Montcalm Counties to the north for both today (Fri.) and Saturday. It was be a touch cooler near Lake Michigan. Cloud cover may keep some areas below Heat Advisory criteria…but upper 80s to low 90s and high humidity will make it uncomfortable.

Waves washing over the breakwater at Grand Haven on Thursday

This picture was taken by my daughter #2 Thurs. evening at Grand Haven. The high water level has moderate waves crashing over the breakwater. The windward side of the breakwaters can develop dangerous currents on breezy days. The wind pushes the water toward the pier (it’s actually a breakwater…piers allow water to go underneath them…breakwaters do not). There are Small Craft Advisories from Holland north. There is a Beach Hazards Statement in effect for today. There is also an Air Quality Alert for today (Fri.) for Berrien, Cass, Van Buren, Allegan, Ottawa, Kent and Muskegon Counties.

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