Two New Tropical Storms

Bill's Blog

There are two new tropical storms in the Atlantic. They are “Paulette” and “Rene”.


Active Storms  |  Marine Forecasts 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook  |  5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

We’re not even halfway through the Atlantic hurricane season (Sept. 10) and we have already had 17 named storms. That ties the most named storms we have ever had at the END of September. Keep in mind that some storms that get names now would not have been named in previous decades (before decent global satellite pics.).

cone graphic

Paulette (as I write this) is expected to remain a tropical storm and drift northwest over the open ocean.

cone graphic

Rene is likely to reach hurricane strength, but also remain over the Central Atlantic far away from land.

GeoColor - True Color daytime, multispectral IR at night - 07 Sep 2020 - 2210 UTC

Here’s a satellite view. You can see the two (relatively small) storms plus areas of thunderstorms in the Southeast U.S. and Caribbean.


Active Storms  |  Marine Forecasts 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook  |  5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific

The Eastern Pacific is quiet at the moment.


Active Storms  2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook  |  5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Central Pacific

The Central Pacific is also quiet – no hurricanes, tropical storms or tropical depressions.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center Graphic

With the demise of “Haishen”, the Western Pacific is unusually quiet. There area also no tropical storms or hurricanes in the Indian Ocean or in the Southern Hemisphere.

Meteorologists use the ACE INDEX (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) to measure tropical systems. The Index is based upon the peak wind speed of the storms with input every 6 hours. A storm with high wind speeds for a relatively long time will generate a higher number of ACE points and a storm with weak winds for a short time will generate a low number of ACE points. Here is the ACE INDEX for each global sector as of Sunday evening:

ACE Index 9/7/20 – from Dr. Ryan Maue and http://climatlas.com/tropical/

While he North Atlantic has had a record number of named storms, most of them have been weak an short-lived, so the ACE INDEX stands at 46.5725 – only slightly above the average ACE (44). The North Indian Ocean has a well above average ACE of 19.22 (average is 7), but the Pacific Ocean is at a record LOW ACE INDEX per date. Globally, it’s been a quiet year for tropical storms – with a global ACE of 291.6575 compared to an aveage-to-date of 456 (63% of average).

U.S. Tornado Count

This has also been a down year for tornadoes, with the count jumping up in April and then a relatively quiet period since April. We’re currently below the 25th percentile at 961. Michigan has had only one small tornado this year – the annual average is 16.

U.S. Wildfire Data Year-to-Date

And…despite the fires in California and the West, the National Interagency Fire Center reports that year-to-date, the number of wildfires and the number of acres burned is lower than the 10-year average in the U.S. Over 90% of wildfires in CA are started by human beings – not because the average temperature rose a degree or two. The latest fire was started by a gender reveal party.

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