Tropical Storm Nester

Bill's Blog

Tropical Storm Nestor was the 14th named tropical storm of the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Here was the forecast path, from the Florida Panhandle throuth Georgia and along the Carolina Coast:
Path of Tropical Storm Nestor

The storm moved through the Florida Panhandle (coming onshore near the place where much stronger hurricane Michael hit last year), Georgia and S. Carolina and exited E. North Carolina later today (Sun.) before heading out to sea Sunday evening. The storm produced 30-60 mph wind gusts along its path…that caused minimal damage, nothing compared to Dorian.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]
Expected rainfall Sunday from Nestor
Satellite picture of Nestor

Note in this satellite picture that there is not a well-defined eye to the storm and that most of the rain is north and east of the circulation center.

Flooding often causes more loss of life and damage than the strong winds. In this case, Nestor moved at a pretty good clip (20-25 mph), so that limited the heavy rain, which was 2-4″. Nestor did produce four relatively small tornadoes in Florida and one in Georgia. Some damage, but no injuries.

Drought monitor for the week of Oct. 15-22

This was the Drought Monitor during the time Nestor was moving through the SE U.S. As you can see, the Southeast was dry and Nestor ‘s rain soaked in and produced just minimal local flooding. Here’s current Southeast Radar:

Southeast sector loop

You can clink on these links for the Forecast Discussion, Public Advisory, Wind Probabilities and Forecast Advisory. Here’s a link to the Severe Weather Probability Maps.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]
Wind Speed Map from Nestor

Here’s the Wind Speed Probability Map.

time of arrival graphic
Arrival Time of the Strongest Winds

Note the potential for flash flooding was only in the Marginal (5%) category. There was the possibility of a storm surge of up to 2-4 feet from Clearwater Beach (near Tampa) to Indian Pass (the southernmost point in the Florida Panhandle. There are no other tropical storms or depressions in the Atlantic.

cone graphic

Post tropical Storm Octave in the Eastern Pacific is weakening and will fade away far from any land. Tropical Storm Neoguri will move northeast off the east coast of Japan – a far less dangerous storm than Hagibis. Tropical Depression 22W will likely increase to hurricane strength and move toward Japan late next week. There are no tropical depressions or storm in the Central Pacific or in the Southern Hemisphere (where it’s still early spring).

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