Tornado Probabilities In Early August

Bill's Blog

Tornado Probabilities in the U.S. on August 6

The map above from the Storm Prediction Center shows the probability of a tornado on August 6 in the U.S. Note the higher probabilities in the Northern U.S. than over much of the Southern U.S. You’re more likely to see a tornado in August in N. Dakota (or Southern Michigan) than in Oklahoma or Texas. Remember the tornadoes on August 20, 2016? (shout out to Charles Russell for his video in the NBC piece at the link) The map shows higher chances of a tornado in Florida due to occasional August hurricanes and also you can see a subtle bump along the Atlantic Coast from E. Virginia up to New England also from rare hurricanes.

Severe Weather Reports for August 3, 2020

Here’s storm reports for August 3 (Monday). There were 26 tornadoes (some up to at least EF2 and a couple of fatalities). from N. Carolina to Delaware and Maryland.

Storm Reports for Tuesday August 4

Here’s storm reports from August 4 (Tuesday). There were 10 tornado reports, but that included a three from the Plains States. So, combine the two and we have 33 tornadoes. The storm surveys have not been completed, so that number may go up (or more likely) down, but that’s still a lot of tornadoes.

The most tornadoes from a hurricane in recent decades was 117 from Hurricane Ivan (2004). Right behind was Hurricane Beulah (1967) with 115, then Frances (2004) with 103 followed by Rita (2005) with 98.

There are still nearly 2 million customers without power from Tropical Storm Isaias as I write this at 3:50 am on Thurs. That includes 635,767 in Connecticut, 579,022 in New York and 578,559 in New Jersey.

Calm winds everywhere – 3 am on August 6, 2020

Not too often you have calm winds at every reporting station in SW Lower Michigan – but that’s the case now…and…

Calm winds in SE Michigan

same story in SE Michigan – pretty much calm winds everywhere. Down to 49 at Bad Axe…a cool morning for the first week of August.

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