This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center for this (Mon.) afternoon. The highest risk for a severe thunderstorm this afternoon is in the Enhanced Risk Area (in orange on the map) from E. Iowa into N. Illinois. Surrounding the Enhanced Risk Area is a Slight Risk Area (in yellow on the map) that includes the area south of a line from Grand Haven to west of Coldwater. Surrounding the Slight Risk is a Marginal Risk Area that covers the rest of Lower Michigan. SPC says: “Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are forecast to move across parts of Iowa, Illinois and S. Wisconsin this afternoon.” Michigan is not specifically mentioned in the discussion. Bottom line…severe weather is possible, but not likely this PM with the greater threat to our southwest.
We have a chance of a shower or storm this afternoon/tonight, then dry weather will dominate from tomorrow (Tue.) through at least Friday. Storms are possible again next weekend.
This is Storm Total Rainfall as of Monday AM around 9 am. You can see the swath of heavy rain that fell, mainly in Van Buren County. Here’s some rainfall totals: 2.62″ Gobles, 1.89″ Glendale, 1.53″ Lawrence, 1.21″ south of South Haven (plus a gust to 40 mph at the beach in S. Haven), 0.93″ Grand Junction, 0.85″ Hart (earlier storm), 0.78″ Grand Junction, 0.77″ Lawton, 0.55″ Bloomingdale, 0.30″ Fennville, 0.28″ Allegan, 0.16″ Benton Harbor, 0.07″ Holland and Kalamazoo (airport), 0.02″ Battle Creek and Marshall. There was a trace at the Ford Airport in Grand Rapids.
Also: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for much of Iowa, valid until 3 pm EDT. Morning water temps: Mears 64, Duck Lake 72, Muskegon buoy 71, Holland State Park 72, Port Sheldon Buoy 72, South Haven buoy 75, Reeds Lake 79,