Four Dry Days…Then a Friday/Weekend Storm

Bill's Blog

We just had a 10-day stretch ending yesterday (Sun.) with measurable rain on 9 out of those 10 days. Since Sept. 1, we’ve had measurable rain on 20 out of 36 days…and with a trace of rain on three more days, we’ve only had 13 dry days since Sept. 1.

Now, we get 4 dry days in a row from today through Thursday. We’ll see lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures in the mid 60s today, rising to the low-mid 70s on Thursday. Winds will be west today, then southeast for Tuesday and Wednesday.

GFS Model Weather Map 4 pm Friday 10/11/19

This is the GFS computer model forecast for Friday afternoon at 4 pm. A strong cold front is passing through West Michigan. There will be showers ahead of it…and showers and a possible thundershower with the front. It will be breezy to windy ahead of the front and windy to very windy behind the front.

This is going to make for some nasty weather for the high school football games Friday evening. It’ll be breezy to windy with rain and falling temperatures. The coldest air of the season (since late April/first week of May), will move in for the weekend. I could see wind gusts of at least 40-45 mph behind the cold front with temperatures falling to 45° to 50° with wind chill factors in the low-mid 30s. It will likely be cold enough for lake-effect clouds and maybe even lake-effect rain showers.

6-10 Day Temperature Forecast from the Climate Prediction Center

This is the 6-10 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for October 12-16. Look at all that blue (cold). Only the East Coast is expected to see above average temperatures. Average high temperatures are in the low-mid 60s for Oct. 12-16 and average low temperature in the low-mid 40s.

Here’s the 6-10 day Precipitation Outlook from CPC

The Precipitation Outlook from CPC for Oct. 12-16 has above average rainfall for Michigan. I probably would have put us in the Near Average area, but the ground should stay moist thru the end of the month.

Here’s a few things to watch for this week

The fall color change is way behind schedule (up to two weeks), due to the warm and wet weather we’ve had. We still haven’t been below 40° in many areas. The color change should accelerate a little this week and especially next week. Peak color is still half a month away. River levels will drop this week with the drier pattern thru Thursday. The crest on the Grand River will be moving through Ottawa Co. today. The rivers are high, but we don’t have any significant flooding.

It looks wet and windy for Friday’s Football Frenzy. I could see some pretty healthy wind gusts Friday late afternoon and evening and I can’t rule out a few low-topped thundershowers with +40 mph gusts and brief heavy rain along the cold front. It should be a least windy, if not wet and windy, for the Saturday games. Western, Central and Eastern (on the gray field) have home games this Sat. Most football stadiums are north/south and we’ll have a west wind (cross wind) on Saturday.

Weekend Planner

We’re still in the warm air on Friday – so 60s and showers with a brisk south wind. There will be some strong (+35 mph) gusts with and behind the cold front. Temps. probably 45° – 50° most of Saturday and Sunday. The last high temp. of 49° was May 2.

High temps. the next 5 days

So, enjoy the next 4 dry and mild days…rain on Friday – wind and much colder Friday night into Sunday.

Projected Path of Typhoon Hagibis

Storm Team 8 has to track many elements to stay on top of the forecast. One thing we look at is Western Pacific Typhoons. We’ve got a big one going…this is intensifying Typhoon (Hurricane) Hagibis. It’s going to ramp up to 160 mph winds as it passes north of Guam and heads toward Japan. Recurving typhoons often bring a trough in the upper atmosphere over the Eastern or East-Central U.S. Troughs tend to bring cool and sometimes showery weather. So, we’ll have to look for that down the road into mid-late October.

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