The map above shows the departure from average precipitation over the past year. You can see the heavy precipitation (rain and winter snow) that has fallen over much of the Midwest and Western Lakes, especially eastern Upper Michigan, Wisconsin and N. Illinois. It isn’t hard to see why the water levels of the Great Lakes have remained high.
We’ll be partly sunny today (Thu.), not totally sunny like Wed. (98% sun – we had 100% sunshine on Tue.). It will stay dry through midnight. Late tonight we’ll have a chance of a shower and showers are likely on Friday.
This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center for Friday PM/evening. The light green is a General or not-severe thunderstorm possibility. SPC says: “Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the advancing cold front, though generally disorganized in nature due to weak instability to the north, and weak shear to the south. This pattern — a lack of appreciable instability north of the Tennessee Valley, along with stronger flow aloft remaining well to the cool side of the front — will persist through Friday, and thus little severe risk is anticipated at this time. So, while most of the rain Friday/Friday night will be in the form of showers, an isolated non-severe thundershower is possible. Gusty winds are possible with the showers and isolated t-showers, particularly along the front, which passes through our area from west to east in the early evening.
Saturday will be much colder. The overnight NAM model gives G.R. a 2 pm Sat. temp. of 47 with a 16 mph west-southwest wind. The wind will be stronger at Lake Michigan and there will be some big waves on the lake. Cold air coming over warm water makes bigger waves than warm air coming over cold water (like in the spring). The overall pattern stays cool pretty much all of next week.
The pic. above is snow at Great Falls, Montana Wed. AM. They had about 7″. Parts of Montana had up to 16.5″. Great Falls has had over 26″ of snow in the last couple weeks, with measurable snow on four days. This current low pressure system is bringing snow to Montana, Wyoming, Minnesota and the Dakotas. There could be mixed, wet snow in parts of Upper Michigan and N. Lower Michigan anytime from Saturday into Sunday night, but the more significant snow will stay to our west.
Also: Neat lightning pic. Gusts to 60 mph possible in S. California. Recurving Typhoon Hagibis will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the east coast of Japan. Recurving typhoons in the Western Pacific often correlate to cool weather in the Great Lakes and eastern U.S. East Coast storm bringing significant rain to NYC and S. New England. Big waves offshore. Moon over farm and mountains in Washington State. Ka-Boom! Waterspout in the Florida Keys. Pretty fall colors in New Hampshire. Fall colors in Vermont. Snow in Idaho. Harvesting corn by headlights in Iowa. San Francisco sunset. Pacific ocean sunset. Flat-calm lake and snowy mountains. Now that’s a front!