Cold Pattern First Half of November

Bill's Blog

The pic. above is the CFS model temperatures difference from average (anomaly) map for the next 10 days. Relatively to average…this is a very cold pattern for the Great Lakes and Central U.S., with the cold expanding into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. As was the case last year, South Florida escapes the core of the colder air and it is warmer than average in the Western U.S. I think the cold pattern lasts for the firsts 12-14 days of November, then the cold eases back (relative to average) in the 3rd week of the month. Comment from Dr. Ryan Maue Saturday: ” An early season extreme cold-blast could devastate the central Lower 48 by next week (Monday 11th).” Keep in mind this is not “Polar Vortex cold” – this is relative to average. The average high temperatures in the first week of November are 20 degrees warmer than the average high temperatures in mid-late January.

72-hour forecast precipitation from the Weather Prediction Center

This is forecast precipitation for the next 72 hours from the Weather Prediction Center. Note that lake-enhanced precipitation (rain and snow) downwind (east) of all five of the Great Lakes. Much of the country will be dry for the next 3 days. The Storm Prediction Center has a chance of thunderstorms only over the Florida Peninsula for the next 72 hours.

This is from the Climate Summary for Sat. Nov. 2 for Grand Rapids:

 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY (11/2):                          
  RAIN                                                                 
  LIGHT RAIN                                                           
  HAIL                                                                 
  SNOW                                                                 
  LIGHT SNOW                                                           
  SLEET                                                                
  FOG                                                                  
  HAZE    

Guess we had just about a little of everything. The high of 43 on Sat. was 11 deg. cooler than average. The low of 35 was only 2 deg. cooler than average. Grand Rapids has had measurable precipitation on 12 of the last 14 days and one day we had just a trace of rain (sprinkles)…so in the last two weeks, we’ve had only one day without rain or snow. It’s been tough on farmers trying to finish the fall harvest.

Gaylord snowfall at the NWS office muskego

Gaylord had a record 4.9″ of snowfall on Saturday.

Soft hail shower at my house Sat. PM

This pic. was taken during a shower or soft hail Saturday PM. You can see the soft hail starting to accumulate. The wind and precipitation knocked a lot of leaves off my trees, which will have to dry out before I can rake or mulch them.

Also: Sunset Saturday at Rosemary Beach (looks like the sun is about to be devoured by an alligator). In the Day 2 (Monday) Fire Weather Outlook – no areas are highlighted…so conditions have and will continue to improve in California. As of 2 am Sunday – only 6,326 customers in the entire state of California don’t have power. Where power is out is in northern New England, where strong winds have brought limbs down on power lines. As I write this, Maine has 20,872 customers without power, New York has 14,583 and Vermont has 8,847 without power.

Nice lightning pic.

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