TX Republican primary heating up

AUSTIN (KXAN) - After finally getting the statewide exposure her campaign expense account cannot afford, Debra Medina has moved up in the polls after the two Republican gubernatorial debates.

"Anybody who wants to talk to Debra Medina can get her for a media event," said Harvey Kronberg with the Quorum Report . "So, she's creating an excitement that neither of the other two are creating."

The latest Rasmussen poll gives Gov. Rick Perry , R-TX, 44 percent of the Republican primary vote. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison , R-TX, dropped four points to 29 percent. And, the woman who some experts considered wouldn't break the double-digit mark has jumped to 16 percent.

Medina's camp responded to the poll, saying they believe their numbers are even higher.

"The current Rasmussen poll shows that we are continuing to accelerate the number of supporters for Debra Medina's bid to the governor's office. What they don't show is we are pulling support from not just likely Republican Primary voters, but from other places as well. We've been receiving letters of support, requests to volunteer and donations from not just republican voters, but democrats, independents and other third parties."

Kronberg called this primary historical.

"The big deal for us in this election is that we have not had an exciting Republican primary since 1990," said Kronberg.

Kronberg said that excitement could actually make these polls virtually worthless. Since pollsters contact people who have previously voted in a Republican primary, the thousands who are new participants haven't been taken into account.

"We may see the Republican primary double and then all bets are off as to who the winner is," said Kronberg.

Besides Independents, a formidable voting bloc this year is the "Tea Party." The group of citizens frustrated with government has grown to more than 120 thousand people and that could represent more than 10 percent of TX Republican primary voters.

"The tea parties are really just the will of the people," said Greg Holloway with the Tea Party Patriots .

And, being a "citizen candidate," Debra Medina has found strong support in this group.

"I think people can see themselves in her shoes," said Holloway. "If they were going to run, they might do some of the things she's done as far as getting grassroots support."

But, Holloway said not all tea partiers agree with Medina's policies. In the group you'll find Perry supporters as well as those who are backing Hutchison. But, one thing they all agree on is they are fed up with the way government is run now.

"We want a return to constitutional principles," said Holloway.

As far as the poll goes, Hutchison's camp issued this statement:

“The only poll that matters is the one on election day when Texans will face a choice between Rick Perry's record of cronyism or Kay Bailey Hutchison's plan for a strong Texas.”

But, with the numbers getting closer, Kronberg doesn't rule out the possibility of a Perry/Medina face-off in an April 13 run-off election.

"You could make a case that she's actually battling Hutchison for second place," said Kronberg. "I would not dismiss that possibility simply because this is such an unconventional year."